国新国证期货早报-20251103

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 31, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.31%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index continued to adjust, and the prices of some commodities like iron ore and asphalt declined slightly [1][2][10]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of different industries are changing. For instance, the steel market is facing a shift from macro - driven sentiment to industry reality, and the alumina industry is in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [11][12]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On October 31, the A - share market saw a collective decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79 points (down 0.81%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 13378.21 points (down 1.14%), and the ChiNext Index at 3187.53 points (down 2.31%). The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4640.67, a decrease of 69.24 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and a third - round increase may start. The steel mills in some areas have production - limiting plans, and the finished product prices have slightly increased. The supply of raw materials may face pressure as the peak season for steel is ending. The daily consumption of coke is 107.96 million tons (- 0.47), and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71% (0.44) [5]. - Coking coal's supply increase is limited due to environmental protection and safety inspections, supporting its price. The spot prices of some coking coal varieties have changed, and the inventory of coking coal in different sectors also shows different trends [6]. Sugar Futures - Due to a large short - term decline, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly on October 31. The night - session of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower due to long - position liquidation [7]. Rubber Futures - The Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline in the night - session on October 31 due to technical factors. The 20 - number rubber futures had a larger decline due to an increase in inventory. The natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1425 tons, and the 20 - number rubber inventory increased by 2217 tons [7]. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, on October 31, the CBOT soybeans were strong, reaching a 15 - month high. After the China - US summit, the market expects China to increase its purchase of US agricultural products including soybeans. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.9%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the inventory pressure of soybean meal still exists [8]. Live Pig Futures - On October 31, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11815 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The secondary fattening activity has cooled down significantly, and the market supply has increased. The demand has a seasonal warming expectation, but the consumption recovery is limited. The "supply exceeds demand" situation in the live pig market remains unchanged [9]. Copper Futures - The Sino - US trade situation has eased, and the Fed cut interest rates slightly in October. However, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the copper price is suppressed. But overseas mine disruptions and low non - US inventories still support the copper price [9]. Cotton Futures - On the night of October 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13555 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 20 lots compared with the previous day, and the price of machine - picked cotton is concentrated at 6.15 - 6.45 yuan/kg [9]. Iron Ore Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.56% at 800 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly for two consecutive periods. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the iron ore price is in a volatile trend due to the decline in the steel mill profitability rate and environmental protection control in Hebei [10]. Asphalt Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 0.58% at 3244 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The demand is slowly released due to cooling and rainfall, and the asphalt price follows the cost - end crude oil and shows a volatile trend [10]. Log Futures - On October 31, the 2601 log contract opened at 785, with the lowest at 783, the highest at 796.5, and closed at 787.5, with a daily reduction of 844 lots. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a de - stocking pattern [11]. Steel Futures - After the China - US summit, the market sentiment driven by macro - expectations has cooled down, and the steel price is returning to the industrial reality. In early November, the steel demand may not continue to grow, and the steel price may show a volatile trend [11]. Alumina Futures - The supply of alumina is still relatively large, but the output may be forced to converge as the spot price approaches the cost line. The demand for alumina is stable as the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is close to the industry upper limit and has a high operating rate [12]. Aluminum Futures - The supply of alumina is relatively large, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting plants have good profits. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by the warming of the domestic macro - sentiment and the development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries [12].