供应边际收缩，工业硅震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated upwards. The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes accelerating the speed and comprehensiveness of green transformation, and the polysilicon industry conference discussed high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry next year, leading to optimistic market expectations for new polysilicon platforms. Supply side saw a marginal contraction as Xinjiang maintained over 80% capacity utilization, while Yunnan dropped to 54% due to the approaching dry season, and Sichuan's output also declined. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry conference boosted market optimism, but silicon wafer prices slightly decreased due to reduced overseas battery demand, and photovoltaic cells continued to weaken. Component demand improved, and inventory pressure eased. Industrial silicon social inventory decreased slightly to 55.8 million tons, and spot prices stabilized and rebounded with the upward fluctuation of futures contracts. Overall, prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From October 24th to October 31st, the industrial silicon主力 contract rose from 8,920 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton, a 2.02% increase; the oxygenated 553 spot rose 1.07% to 9,450 yuan/ton; the non-oxygenated 553 and 421 and 3303 spot prices remained unchanged; the organic silicon DMC spot fell 0.90% to 11,000 yuan/ton; the polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged at 52 yuan/ton; and the industrial silicon social inventory decreased 0.18% to 55.8 million tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro aspect: In September, China's above-scale industrial enterprise profits increased 21.4% year-on-year, and from January - September, they increased 3.2% year-on-year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August last year. Profits in industries such as electricity, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture increased, while those in textiles and petroleum extraction decreased [7]. - Supply and demand aspect: As of October 30th, the weekly industrial silicon output was 98,700 tons, a 0.18% week-on-week and 3.34% year-on-year increase. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas decreased to 312, with an overall capacity utilization rate of 39.2%. Xinjiang's open furnace number remained at 151, Yunnan decreased by 6 to 40, Sichuan and Chongqing decreased by 5 to 47, and Inner Mongolia increased by 4 to 32. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry conference boosted optimism, but silicon wafer prices declined, photovoltaic cells weakened, and component demand improved. The final list of photovoltaic specifications was released, with 129 enterprises passing verification, expected to lead the industry into a new supply - demand balance cycle [8]. - Inventory aspect: As of October 31st, the national industrial silicon social inventory decreased to 55.8 million tons, a 0.1 million - ton week-on-week decrease. High inventory was due to slowed terminal consumption. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts decreased to 47,253 lots, equivalent to 236,000 tons. After the exchange's new delivery standard, 5 - series warehouse receipts meeting the standard were actively registered, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained around 50,000 tons due to expected production cuts in the photovoltaic industry [9]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of 129 enterprises meeting the photovoltaic manufacturing industry standards, which is a dynamic management of the previous twelve batches [11]. - TCL Zhonghuan, a leading photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprise, saw a significant reduction in losses in Q3 this year compared to the same period last year, benefiting from the rebound in the upstream photovoltaic industry chain prices. In Q3, it achieved an operating income of 8.174 billion yuan, a 28.34% year-on-year increase, and a net loss of 1.534 billion yuan, a significant reduction from last year's 2.998 billion yuan loss. The photovoltaic industry chain upstream prices rose in Q3, and silicon wafer prices also increased. Although the short - term silicon wafer market is expected to be weak, the medium - to - long - term outlook is not pessimistic [12].