新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-3）-20251103

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Black Metals: Iron ore, coal coke, rebar - Mainly in a process of returning to fundamentals with varying trends; steel products in shock adjustment [2]. - Glass: In a state of shock, with weak overall demand and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - Soda Ash: Weak, with the glass industry facing an over - supply situation [2]. - Stock Index Futures/Options: Market short - term consolidation, medium - term upward trend, recommended long - holding of stock index [3]. - Treasury Bonds: Market trend shows a slight rebound, recommended light - long holding of treasury bonds [3]. - Gold and Silver: High - level shock, with multiple factors influencing price trends [3]. - Log: Weak shock, with supply pressure increasing and demand likely to weaken [6]. - Pulp: Bottom consolidation, with cost support weakening and demand poor [6]. - Double - offset Paper: Weak shock, with supply pressure and cautious market expectations [6]. - Oils and Fats: Range operation, with supply being abundant and demand weak [6]. - Meal: Short - term rebound, affected by factors such as US soybean prices and South American weather [6][7]. - Live Pigs: Shock - strong, with factors such as demand increase and price differentials supporting the market [7]. - Rubber: Shock, with raw material supply and demand and inventory factors affecting prices [9]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX for observation; PTA in shock; MEG, PR, PF for observation, with different supply - demand and cost factors influencing each [9]. Core Views - The macro - favorable policies such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US initial meeting have landed, and the prices of black metals are returning to fundamentals. The supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, affected by factors such as production, demand, policies, and international situations [2][3]. - The stock index futures market has short - term fluctuations but a medium - term upward trend, while the treasury bond market shows a slight rebound. Gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases [3]. - In the agricultural and forestry products market, the supply and demand of logs, pulp, and other products are changing, and the prices show different trends. The oils and fats and meal markets are affected by factors such as international trade and weather [6][7]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as weight, demand, and price differentials, showing a shock - strong trend. The rubber and polyester product markets are also affected by multiple factors such as raw material supply, demand, and cost [7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Metals - Iron Ore: Supply is expected to increase as Rio Tinto and VALE may increase production to meet annual targets. The supply - demand pattern is "supply is loose, demand is low, and port inventory is accumulating". The core of the decline in hot metal is the weak demand in the steel industry, especially in the real estate sector. The new construction of real estate has dropped to the 2005 level. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports across the country has reached an 8 - month high. Future price changes depend on four main lines: the implementation rhythm of the "anti - involution" policy for coal and coke, the profit and maintenance elasticity of steel mills, the release intensity of terminal demand, and macro - policy signals [2]. - Coal and Coke: Driven by multiple news such as the high - quality development of the coal industry in the "14th Five - Year Plan", mine accidents, and production restrictions, the prices have risen. The core contradiction in the market is the extremely low profit level of steel mills. If the finished steel market continues to weaken, the scope of steel mill maintenance may expand, which will put pressure on the raw material end. Coke has started the third round of price increases, and the short - term trend is shock - strong [2]. - Rebar: The static valuation is low, and the core of the decline in hot metal is the weak steel demand. The new construction of real estate has dropped to the 2005 level. The supply - demand contradiction of steel still exists, and the price is mainly in shock adjustment. The decline in steel prices can be stopped if the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 reaches more than 5% and the "anti - involution" policy is strongly implemented. The real estate development investment data from January to September decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and the decline rate increased by 1% compared with January to August. The year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment from January to September dropped to 1.1% and 4% respectively [2]. Building Materials - Glass: The demand is weak, and the inventory of glass factories is increasing. The contradiction between the mid - stream shipment and the weak downstream demand has led to the failure of the apparent demand to recover. The continuous decline in real estate completion during the peak season has dragged down the demand outlook. To resolve the over - supply contradiction in the entire industry chain, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year. The short - term price is in low - level shock [2]. Financial Products - Stock Index Futures/Options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.47%, the SSE 50 Index fell by 1.15%, the CSI 500 Index fell by 0.74%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.29%. The market short - term consolidates, and the medium - term trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [3]. - Treasury Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of funds. The spot interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend shows a slight rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes,避险 attributes, and commodity attributes. The Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term disturbing factors. The short - term price of gold is expected to remain in high - level shock [3]. Agricultural and Forestry Products - Log: The daily average shipment volume of ports has increased, but the demand may weaken in the future. The import volume in the fourth quarter shows a seasonal increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The port inventory is expected to change from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. The spot market price is relatively stable, and the price is expected to show a weak shock trend [6]. - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is poor. The paper industry has low profitability, and paper mills have high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high - price pulp. The price is expected to be in bottom consolidation [6]. - Double - offset Paper: The new production capacity in South China has increased, and the supply pressure still exists. The market expectation is cautious, and the price is expected to show a weak shock trend [6]. - Oils and Fats: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data guidance. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is favorable, but the high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and the possible postponement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy have affected the market. The domestic supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall price is expected to continue range operation [6]. - Meal: Affected by the recovery of US soybean exports, the price of US soybeans has risen, which has increased the cost of domestic soybean imports. The planting progress of soybeans in South America is affected by weather, and the domestic supply of meal has increased, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to have a short - term rebound [6][7]. Livestock Products - Live Pigs: The average trading weight has increased slightly, and the demand has increased with the decrease in temperature. The price of large pigs is firm, and the price of standard pigs has also risen. The slaughter volume may increase slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs is expected to rise [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - Rubber: The raw material supply in different regions is affected by weather. The demand side has an increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The inventory of natural rubber is decreasing, but the expected increase in future supply will suppress raw material prices, and the price is expected to show a wide - range shock [9]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX is affected by potential supply risks and short - term supply - demand changes. PTA has a marginal improvement in supply - demand but is affected by cost. MEG has high supply and potential over - supply in the future. PR has increased supply pressure, and PF is expected to be weakly sorted [9].