供应趋于宽松，棕榈油破位下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 215 to close at 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 358 to close at 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 66 to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 339 to close at 9,422 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.47%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 1.67 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 5.5 to close at 637.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.87% [4]. - Palm oil broke through support and continued to weaken. High - frequency data showed that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil slowed down in October while production maintained an upward trend. It is expected that the ending inventory at the end of October will accumulate more than expected, supply will become looser, and origin quotes will be lowered. In addition, Indonesia's production data was impressive, and its 2025 production is expected to maintain a large increase. Indonesia's B50 policy has been opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as funding constraints, the implementation time of the biodiesel policy may be postponed [4]. - Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, but there were large differences regarding a December rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut declined significantly. The US dollar index fluctuated upwards, and oil prices fluctuated. Fundamentally, the expectation of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil at the end of October has increased. Attention should be paid to the upcoming MPOB report. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 has been impressive, supply is becoming looser, and the implementation time of the biodiesel policy is still uncertain. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Various contract price changes from October 24 to October 31 are presented. For example, the CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 50.29 to 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell from 4,420 to 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the DCE palm oil contract fell from 9,122 to 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%, etc. There are also data on spot prices and price differences between various oils [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and export data: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's single - yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports in October show different growth rates. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by about 10% to 56 - 57 million tons, and exports are expected to be 30 - 31 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly [8][9]. - Inventory data: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country increased compared to last week and the same period last year. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil in key regions across the country as of the week of October 31, 2025, increased compared to the previous week [10]. Industry News - The US will reduce tariffs on 1,711 Malaysian export products, including palm oil, to below 19%, which is expected to enhance the price competitiveness of Malaysian products in the US market [11]. - As of now in this fiscal year, India's palm oil planting area has reached 52,113 hectares, and the total planting area under the "National Mission on Edible Oils - Oil Palm" since its launch in August 2021 has reached 241,000 hectares [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities aims to strengthen the downstream development of Sabah's palm oil industry, especially in biodiesel production. Sabah is Malaysia's largest crude palm oil - producing region, accounting for 22.1% of the country's total crude palm oil production in 2024 [12]. Relevant Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, price differences, inventory, and production and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia [14][17][19] etc.