Report Information - Report Title: "Bean Meal Weekly Report" [1][27][32] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT US soybean January contract rose 54.5 to close at 1115 cents per bushel, a 5.14% increase; the bean meal 01 contract rose 88 to close at 3021 yuan per ton, a 3.00% increase; the South China bean meal spot price rose 40 to close at 2980 yuan per ton, a 1.36% increase; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 63 to close at 2388 yuan per ton, a 2.71% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 40 to close at 2510 yuan per ton, a 1.62% increase [5][8] - Positive signals from the China-US high-level meeting in South Korea led to the resumption of US soybean purchases by China, with optimistic export demand prospects boosting US soybean prices. The peak pressure on domestic supply has passed, and soybean and bean meal inventories have started to decline. With the strong performance of the external market, the support of import costs has increased, leading to a weekly fluctuating rise in Dalian bean meal futures [5][8] - After the China-US high-level meeting, the resumption of US soybean purchases boosted the external market. The US government shutdown continued, and relevant data such as production were still not released. Precipitation in the Brazilian producing areas was favorable for crop growth, and sowing in the Argentine producing areas began. The domestic supply peak has passed, and the inventory reduction cycle has started, with increased support from import costs. It is expected that Dalian bean meal futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean futures price rose from 1060.50 to 1115.00 cents per bushel, a 5.14% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose from 487.00 to 493.00 dollars per ton, a 1.23% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans rose from 470.00 to 493.00 dollars per ton, a 4.89% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from -204.80 to -206.51 yuan per ton [6] - The DCE bean meal futures price rose from 2933.00 to 3021.00 yuan per ton, a 3.00% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal futures price rose from 2325.00 to 2388.00 yuan per ton, a 2.71% increase; the bean meal - rapeseed meal price difference increased from 608.00 to 633.00 yuan per ton [6] - The spot price of bean meal in East China and South China rose from 2940.00 to 2980.00 yuan per ton, a 1.36% increase; the spot - futures price difference in South China decreased from 7.00 to -41.00 yuan per ton [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of October 26, 2025, the estimated US soybean harvest rate was 84%, with an estimated range of 80% - 88%. As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [9] - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.38 dollars per bushel the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein bean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 299.18 dollars per short ton, up from 288.57 dollars per short ton the previous week [9] - As of the week of October 25, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 34.4%, up from 21.7% the previous week. The Dutch Cooperative Bank predicted that the Brazilian soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season would reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year, with an expected output of 177 million tons, a 3% increase [10] - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the inventory of major oil mills' soybeans was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons from the previous week; the bean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 4.2125 million tons, a decrease of 794,500 tons from the previous week [11] - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average daily trading volume of bean meal nationwide was 111,780 tons, with spot trading volume of 76,220 tons and forward trading volume of 35,560 tons. The average daily delivery volume of bean meal was 196,360 tons, and the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2534 million tons [12] 3. Industry News - In September, the soybean processing volume in Argentina reached 4.13 million tons, the highest in the past 11 months, and exports of soybean products to China increased significantly. The soybean export volume also increased by 42% year - on - year [13] - From October 20 - 24, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, was 467.42 reais per ton, up from 457.72 reais per ton the previous week [13] - As of October 26, the EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, bean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season decreased compared with the same period last year [13] - In the period from October 21 - 27, soybean sowing in Parana state, Brazil, advanced rapidly, and the estimated output in the 2025/26 season was 21.96 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast [14] - The Argentine oilseed workers' union may resume strikes next week [14] - Paraguay's preliminary estimated soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 10.8 million tons, a 5.8% increase from the previous year [14] - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil output, and rapeseed meal output all increased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [15] 4. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, the net position of managed funds in CBOT, the trend of bean meal main contracts, etc. [16][17][18]
豆粕周报：美豆采购重启，连粕震荡上涨-20251103
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-03 02:38