钢材周报：宏观靴子落地，期价冲高回落-20251103

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1st. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and pause the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [1][4][6]. - Last week, the production and apparent demand of steel increased, and inventory decreased. However, as the weather turns cold, steel demand will gradually weaken, and the pattern of weak supply and demand in the steel industry remains unchanged. Overall, with the macro - level positive factors realized, the market will focus on the fundamentals, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3106 | 6 | 0.19 | 7602371 | 2647901 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3308 | 9 | 0.27 | 2719646 | 1473286 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 800.0 | 13.5 | 1.72 | 1679472 | 551548 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1286.0 | 22.5 | 1.78 | 6258826 | 970861 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1777.0 | - 2.5 | - 0.14 | 111286 | 50050 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures rose first and then fell. The macro - level factors drove the black - series commodities to be generally strong, but after the macro - level uncertainties were resolved on Thursday, the futures prices declined. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2980 (+50) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3230 (+30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3330 (+40) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, proposed to reform and improve the real - estate development, financing, and sales systems, promote the spot - house sales system, and standardize the supervision of pre - sale funds [6]. - The "Proposal for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released, aiming to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, enhance the status and competitiveness of key industries in the global industrial division of labor, and improve the self - controllability of the industrial chain [6]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1st [6]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period and the long - term goal of reaching the level of medium - developed countries in per - capita GDP by 2035 [6]. - The US and China reached an agreement on tariffs, with the US canceling some tariffs and pausing relevant investigation measures, and China adjusting or suspending relevant counter - measures [6]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis trends, regional price differences, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][10][11]