贵金属周报：金银价格仍处于阶段性调整之中-20251103

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - November 3, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of precious metals continued to adjust last week. The easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations reduced market risk aversion, and Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3][6]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% - 4.00% last Wednesday, the second rate cut this year. Powell was cautious about future rate cuts, which cooled investors' expectations of further monetary easing, leading to an increase in US bond yields and a stronger dollar [3][7]. - Given the current easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations and the reduced expectation of a December rate cut due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the view that gold and silver prices are in a phase adjustment is maintained. Even if there are short - term rebounds due to data, the medium - term adjustment trend of gold and silver remains unchanged. The announcement of gold - related tax policies may affect domestic investment sentiment and increase the volatility of domestic gold prices on Monday [3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 921.92 | -16.18 | -1.72 | 156891 | 178255 | Yuan/Gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 921.02 | 24.33 | 2.71 | 54322 | 247700 | Yuan/Gram | | COMEX Gold | 4013.40 | -113.50 | -2.75 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | | SHFE Silver | 11441 | 109 | 0.96 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/Kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 11410 | 414 | 3.77 | 1394914 | 4355604 | Yuan/Kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 48.25 | -0.16 | -0.33 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The prices of precious metals continued to adjust last week. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and Powell's hawkish remarks led to a decrease in the expectation of a December rate cut, maintaining the view of a phase adjustment in gold and silver prices [3][6][8]. - The Fed cut rates last Wednesday, and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts led to an increase in US bond yields and a stronger dollar [3][7]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and the US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, while the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% unchanged for the third time, and the eurozone's Q3 GDP growth was better than expected [7][11]. - The Japanese central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% unchanged for the sixth consecutive time [11]. - The announcement of gold - related tax policies may affect domestic investment sentiment and increase the volatility of domestic gold prices on Monday [3][8]. - This week, attention should be paid to the US ADP employment report, Fed officials' speeches, and Trump's possible attendance at the US Supreme Court's "tariff ruling" hearing [8]. 3. Important Data Information - ADP will launch weekly employment data from this week. As of October 11, the average number of private - sector jobs in the US increased by 14,250 in four weeks [10]. - The US consumer confidence index in October declined for the third consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since April this year [10]. - The IMF predicts that the US government debt - to - GDP ratio will reach 143.4% by 2030, exceeding that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century [10]. - The eurozone's Q3 GDP increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, better than expected, but there was increased differentiation among member states [10]. - The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2% unchanged for the third time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target [11]. - The Japanese central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% unchanged for the sixth consecutive time, with some members opposing and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate hike [11]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarified gold - related tax policies, highlighting the tax advantages of exchange - traded gold [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, ETF holdings, inventory changes, net long positions, price spreads, and various correlations such as gold - to - silver ratios, inflation expectations, and relationships with other economic indicators [12][15][19][21][23][24][27][31][32][34][38][40][41][42][43]