镍周报：成本支撑夯实，敬候提张驱动-20251103

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Previous Review: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's speech was unexpectedly hawkish, stating that there is no need to cut rates in December. The ECB and BOJ maintained their existing interest rate policies. Sino-US relations have eased, and the nickel price retreated significantly after the release of macro bullish expectations due to no obvious improvement in fundamentals [3]. - Future Outlook: The bottom support is solid, waiting for the driving force to boost the price. Overseas nickel ore supply is expected to shrink marginally, and the cost support remains. The real estate sales data is still sluggish, and the new energy consumption may drive the demand, but there is a risk of cooling demand at the end of the month. The supply remains high, and the pressure of oversupply remains unchanged. Sino-US relations have entered a stage of easing, and there is still room for macro boost. It is expected that the deep decline space of nickel price is limited [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Summary - Nickel Prices: SHFE nickel price decreased from 122,150 yuan/ton to 120,590 yuan/ton, and LME nickel price decreased from 15,361 dollars/ton to 15,226 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,248 tons to 252,102 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,578 tons to 31,388 tons [4]. 2. Market Condition Analysis - Macro Aspect: The Fed cut interest rates, while the ECB and BOJ maintained rates. Sino-US relations have eased, with the two sides reaching multiple consensuses and suspending some trade confrontation policies [3][5]. - Nickel Ore: The FOB prices of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The nickel ore shipment volume in the Philippines decreased due to the rainy season, and the overall performance of the ore end was relatively strong [6]. - Pure Nickel: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The profit margins of some processes were significantly repaired, and the import volume increased significantly [7]. - Nickel Iron: The price of high-nickel pig iron decreased slightly. In September, the nickel pig iron production in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The total inventory increased [7][8]. - Stainless Steel: In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The domestic 300-series stainless steel production is expected to decrease in October, and the inventory increased slightly. The price of 300-series stainless steel decreased slightly [9]. - Nickel Sulfate: The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate remained stable, while the price of electroplating-grade nickel sulfate increased. In September, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased. The profit margins of some processes increased [10]. - New Energy: From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were flat. The sales data may gradually reflect the strong demand in November, but there is a risk of a sharp decline in sales growth in late November [10]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of pure nickel decreased, while the SHFE and LME inventories increased [11]. 3. Industry News - The Kalgoorlie nickel project of Ardea Resources has obtained a three-year extension of support from the Australian federal government [13]. - A nickel mine in the Philippines may face suspension of operation due to deforestation near a protected area [13]. - Ember urges Indonesia to decarbonize its nickel industry that relies on coal [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel price trends, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic and foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high-nickel iron price, 300-series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][16].