中辉期货豆粕日报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term Oscillation: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - Short - term Decline: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Short - term Adjustment: Soybean Oil [1] - Short - term Callback: Cotton [1] - Cautiously Bearish: Red Dates [1] - Alert to Rebound: Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term oscillation. Pay attention to Sino - US trade and Brazilian weather. Current tariffs support domestic soybean meal cost and are negative for US soybeans [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term oscillation. Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed factors. Follow soybean meal trends and focus on Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - Palm Oil: Short - term decline. Enter a supply - demand weakening phase, with expected inventory accumulation in October and November. Hold existing short positions cautiously [1][8]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term adjustment. Lack of bullish support from US soybeans and biodiesel policies. High domestic inventory. Follow palm oil trends and be cautious about short - selling [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates, but lack of bullish drivers in the oil market. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - Cotton: Short - term callback. Global supply pressure, but Indian MSP provides some support. Domestic new cotton harvest is almost complete, with increasing inventory and weak demand [1][11]. - Red Dates: Cautiously bearish. Loose fundamentals expected. Reduce short positions as the price approaches the cost. Monitor post - harvest pricing [1][14]. - Live Pigs: Alert to rebound. Supply pressure in Q4, but some second - fattening opportunities. Focus on market supply - demand changes and consider short - selling on rebounds and arbitrage opportunities [1][17]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Price and Inventory: As of October 24, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased by 15.3 tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory decreased by 17.41 tons, while bean meal inventory increased by 7.84 tons. Feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days increased slightly [3]. - Market Situation: Spot prices increased, but procurement sentiment was weak. Supply remained loose, and the basis had limited upside [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Price and Inventory: As of October 24, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was flat, rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts increased. International rapeseed production is expected to rise [6]. - Market Situation: Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking phase, but demand is seasonally weak. It follows soybean meal trends due to lack of new drivers [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Price and Inventory: As of October 24, 2025, national commercial inventory increased by 3.14 tons week - on - week. Malaysian production and export data vary, but inventory is expected to accumulate [7][8]. - Market Situation: Enter a supply - demand weakening phase, with Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 policy negatively affecting prices [1][8]. 3.4 Cotton - Price and Inventory: US new cotton is being harvested, and Indian MSP implementation is delayed. Domestic new cotton harvest is almost complete, and commercial inventory is approaching the same - period level [9][10]. - Market Situation: Global supply pressure, but Indian MSP provides support. Domestic demand is weak, and the market has limited upward momentum [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - Price and Inventory: Expected large - scale harvest. Inventory increased as some merchants bought old - season dates. New jujube purchase prices are concentrated in a certain range [13]. - Market Situation: Loose fundamentals expected. The market is volatile, and short - term short positions should be reduced [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - Price and Inventory: As of relevant data, inventory increased slightly, and the average slaughter weight was stable. Supply is expected to increase in Q4 [15][16]. - Market Situation: Supply pressure is postponed to December. Demand is stabilizing. Be cautious about short - term rebounds and consider trading strategies and arbitrage opportunities [17].