Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is in a state of weak reality versus production cut expectations. The price has stabilized, but a rebound remains weak without large - scale production cuts. The support level for the next month is expected to be around 2750 - 2800 yuan/ton [3][67]. - The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively low supply pressure, with overseas supply disruptions and an increasing domestic aluminum - water ratio. Consumption shows resilience, and with the copper - aluminum ratio repair logic, the aluminum price is expected to be positive. After a short - term adjustment, the aluminum price is likely to remain bullish [3][68][70]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In October, the main alumina futures contract was still weak, with the price fluctuating narrowly between 2800 - 2880 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased [9]. - In October, the Shanghai aluminum futures contract oscillated upwards, reaching a new high of 21425 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum was relatively stronger, reaching 2917 dollars/ton at one point. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio decreased from 7.63 to 7.32, and the import loss expanded to about 2500 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - The Sino - US tariff negotiation in October had positive results. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October and ended quantitative tightening in December. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut decreased from over 90% to less than 70% [14]. - In the US, the September CPI rose seasonally, and the October Markit composite PMI rebounded. In the eurozone, the October composite PMI also rebounded, mainly due to the strong performance of the German service industry [15][16]. Domestic - In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and the industrial added value increased by 6.2%. In September, the CPI and PPI improved, and the new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan [17][19]. - From January to September, China's exports increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was 8750.8 billion dollars. In September, exports and imports both increased significantly [18]. 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - In October, the supply of domestic bauxite was tight, and the price was stagnant. From January to September, China imported 157.637 million tons of bauxite. In September, the import volume was about 15.88 million tons [22]. - The price of domestic bauxite may continue to decline slightly due to the weak profit of downstream alumina and the seasonal decrease in the arrival of imported bauxite [23]. Alumina Supply - In September, China's alumina production was 7.623 million tons, and it is estimated to be about 7.85 million tons in October. In the long run, some high - cost enterprises may face production cuts [24]. - In September, the alumina import volume was 59,980 tons, and the export volume was 246,420 tons. Since mid - September, the import window has been open, which is expected to break the net export pattern [26]. Alumina Inventory and Spot - By the end of October, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 223,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the end of last month. The spot premium remained high and volatile [27]. Alumina Cost and Profit - In September, the average fully - cost of the Chinese alumina industry was 2932.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08 yuan/ton from August, mainly due to the increase in raw material prices [28]. Alumina Outlook - The alumina market is still in a state of weak reality versus production cut expectations. The price has stabilized, but the rebound is weak without large - scale production cuts. The support level for the next month is expected to be around 2750 - 2800 yuan/ton [29][67]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In September, China's primary aluminum production was 3.6488 million tons, and it is estimated to be about 3.772 million tons in October. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise to 77.3% in October [36]. - In September, the global (ex - China) electrolytic aluminum production was 2.436 million tons. In October, the production of Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter decreased, and the overseas production is expected to continue to decline [36][39]. - From January to September, China's cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.9624 million tons, and the cumulative exports were about 182,300 tons. The cumulative net imports were 1.78 million tons [39]. Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By the end of October, the aluminum ingot inventory was 618,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the end of last month. The aluminum rod inventory was 146,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots + aluminum rods was 772,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons [40]. - The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory warrant was 66,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from last month, and the LME inventory was 469,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons [40]. Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In October, the spot discount was close to par to a slight premium during the mid - month delivery, and was around a discount of 50 yuan/ton at the beginning and end of the month. The LME 0 - 3 month contract remained in a slight premium state [41]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In October, the theoretical average fully - cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,793.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 334.24 yuan/ton from last month. The monthly theoretical profit was 5188.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 546.18 yuan/ton from last month [42]. 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - In October, the performance of aluminum processing was lackluster during the peak season. In November, the demand in the construction and some industrial fields will continue to weaken, but the demand in the new energy vehicle and power sectors will remain relatively stable [59]. Domestic Terminal Consumption - In the real estate sector, from January to September, the cumulative new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, the cumulative completion area decreased by 15.3%, and the cumulative construction area decreased by 9.4% [60]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6% [61]. - In the power sector, from January to September, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investment of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. It is expected that the annual investment will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time [61]. - In the photovoltaic sector, in September, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.7GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.94%. From January to September, the newly - added installed capacity was 240.31GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.37% [62]. Aluminum Exports - In September, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 521,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [64]. 6. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Fed's policy and the Sino - US trade negotiation will affect the market. The domestic demand - side policy is worth looking forward to [67]. - In the alumina market, the supply pressure is still large, but the production cut expectation is increasing. The price has stabilized, but the rebound is weak without large - scale production cuts [67]. - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the supply pressure is small, and the consumption has resilience. With the copper - aluminum ratio repair logic, the aluminum price is expected to be positive. After a short - term adjustment, the aluminum price is likely to remain bullish [68][70].
氧化铝及电解铝月报：宏观及供应扰动，铝价震荡偏好-20251103
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-03 02:42