鲍威尔立场偏鹰，铜价高位回落

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices retreated from high levels. Although China and the US reached important consensus on economic and trade issues, the cautious stance of the Fed Chairman and the ECB's decision to pause rate cuts made the continuation of global central bank easing uncertain, dampening capital market sentiment. However, the rapid development of emerging industries globally provides broad prospects for copper demand, so copper prices still have upward potential in the medium term. Fundamentally, overseas mines are slow to resume production, domestic refined copper output is decreasing monthly, social inventories in non-US regions are low, and the near-term futures contract has returned to par. [2][7][9] - Overall, the important economic and trade consensus between China and the US has boosted market risk appetite, but the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell after fulfilling the rate cut expectation have made the market more cautious. Fortunately, the rapid development of emerging markets globally provides broad space for copper consumption. Fundamentally, the slow resumption of overseas mines, decreasing domestic refined copper output, and low social inventories in non-US regions mean traditional industries can't provide effective demand increments, but emerging industries are growing rapidly. The strong fundamental expectations are driving the center of copper prices to move up continuously. It is expected that copper prices will return to an upward trend after a short-term adjustment. [2][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Price Changes: From October 24 to October 31, LME copper dropped from $10,947.00 to $10,891.50 per ton, a decrease of $55.50 or -0.51%; COMEX copper fell from 511.75 to 511.4 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.35 cents or -0.07%; SHFE copper declined from 87,720 to 87,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 710 yuan or -0.81%; international copper decreased from 78,160 to 77,460 yuan per ton, a decrease of 700 yuan or -0.90%. The Shanghai-London ratio dropped from 8.01 to 7.99, and the LME spot premium decreased from -$25.97 to -$14.44 per ton, a change of $11.53 or -44.40%. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 10 to 0 yuan per ton. [3] - Inventory Changes: As of October 31, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 713,107 tons, a rise of 13,822 tons or 1.98% from October 24. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 1,725 tons (-1.27%), COMEX inventory increased by 7,699 short tons (2.21%), SHFE inventory increased by 11,348 tons (10.83%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 3,500 tons (-3.18%). [6][7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: China and the US reached important economic and trade consensus, with the US canceling a 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, continuing to suspend a 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and pausing the implementation of a 50% export control penetration rule for one year. China will suspend relevant export control measures and study specific plans, and the US will pause a 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. The ECB maintained its three major interest rates unchanged for the third time, believing that the current policy is in a good position and can tolerate a temporary small deviation of inflation from the target. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time and will stop the QT program in December, but the Fed Chairman said a December rate cut is not certain. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, indicating that this round of rate cuts may be nearing an end. In China, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 21.4% year - on - year, and from January to September, it increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August last year. [7][8] - Supply - demand aspect: In Indonesia, the Grasberg mine continues to be shut down and is expected to return to normal levels by 2027. The Panama government emphasizes the state - owned nature of Cobre Panama, and the underground pumping work at Kamoa is in progress, with an expected production reduction of 10 - 15 tons this year. On the refined copper side, shortages of ore and scrap copper have led to insufficient raw materials for smelting, and fourth - quarter production is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter. In terms of demand, power grid investment bidding has slowed down, the copper cable production rate is lower than in previous years, the domestic air - conditioning market has reached a bottleneck, and the marginal drag of real estate on copper consumption has slowed down. Traditional industries can't provide effective demand increments during the peak season, but emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles and AI - driven data centers have broad prospects for copper consumption. The domestic social inventory is low, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance, with the near - term futures spread returning to near par. [9] 3. Industry News - Anglo American's Collahuasi Copper Mine: The Collahuasi copper mine in Chile is facing a decline in ore grade, and its production will be restricted next year. It is expected to return to normal output levels in 2027, when the annual output is expected to reach about 600,000 tons. The main reasons for the output recovery are the mining of higher - grade ore areas in the open - pit mine and the full operation of a new seawater desalination plant next year. The potential lower - than - expected production next year will intensify the global copper supply shortage. After the merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources, the high - grade ore from Collahuasi will supply Teck Resources' nearby Quebrada Blanca copper mine, with an expected annual increase of 175,000 tons of copper production and an annual profit increase of about $1.4 billion. [10] - Glencore's Copper Production: In the third quarter of 2025, Glencore's copper production was 239,600 tons, a 36.1% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year. The quarter - on - quarter increase was mainly due to the improvement of ore grades at Katanga, Antapaccay, and Antamina. From January to September 2025, the cumulative copper production was 583,500 tons, a 17% decrease year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in ore grade and recovery rate affected by the planned mining sequence. Glencore has lowered its 2025 copper production guidance from 850,000 - 890,000 tons to 850,000 - 875,000 tons, with an expected fourth - quarter production of 266,000 - 291,000 tons. Antamina's equity copper production in the third quarter of 2025 was 34,500 tons, a 7% decrease year - on - year and a 52% increase quarter - on - quarter. The annual production guidance for 2025 is 126,000 - 129,000 tons, with an expected fourth - quarter production of 36,000 - 39,000 tons. The copper ore grade is expected to increase to 0.92% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 0.81% as of September. [11][12] 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventories, premiums, spreads, and ratios, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME and COMEX copper inventories and注销仓单 ratios, Shanghai non - ferrous copper spot premium trends, and copper import profit and loss trends, etc. All data sources are iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures. [13][16][19]