中辉期货：螺纹钢早报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil): Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ferro - Manganese Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Silicon Iron: Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro situation has been settled, and the contradictions are limited. Rebar shows a supply - demand double - weak off - season characteristic, and hot - rolled coil inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years. Both have weak driving forces, with rebar potentially weakening in the short - term and hot - rolled coil possibly having a short - term correction [3][4][5] - For iron ore, due to environmental control and losses in some steel mills, iron - making water production has decreased. The static fundamentals are neutral to bullish, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - For coke, the second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price remains strong [11] - For coking coal, the supply may be tightened in the future, and the demand has weakened marginally. However, the supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy, and the price remains strong [14] - For ferro - manganese silicon and silicon iron, the supply is at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. They are recommended to be treated bearishly [18][19] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Variety Views - Rebar: Weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The decline in iron - making water production weakens the support for raw materials. The Sino - US meeting ended with the implementation of tariff mitigation measures [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Both apparent demand and production increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years [4] Disk Operation Suggestions - Rebar: The upward and downward driving forces are weak. It will maintain range - bound operation in the medium - term and may face short - term weakness [5] - Hot - rolled coil: The decrease in iron - making water production weakens the demand support for raw materials. It will operate in a range in the medium - term and may have a short - term correction [5] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different degrees of decline; spot prices also had fluctuations; basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Iron Ore Variety Views - This week, iron - making water production decreased significantly due to environmental control in Tangshan and loss - based maintenance in some steel mills. Steel mills reduced inventory, and ports accumulated inventory. There is an expectation that foreign ore shipments will decline from the high level, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bullish [8] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [9] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of iron ore decreased, and spot prices also declined. There were changes in spreads, basis, and other data [6] Coke Variety Views - The second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, and the third round is coming. The profit of coke enterprises has improved slightly but is still mostly in a loss state. The steel mill inventory is at a medium - low level. Although there is maintenance in Tangshan due to environmental protection, the maintenance time is short. The iron - making water production has declined from the high level, but the short - term shipment of coke enterprises is good, and some steel mills are still replenishing inventory [11] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [12] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of coke declined, and there were corresponding changes in basis, spreads, and other data. In terms of spot prices, there was no change, and there were also fluctuations in weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10] Coking Coal Variety Views - Coal mine production and operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month. The supply - side inspection of over - production in November may be strengthened, and the uncertainty of the political situation in Mongolia continues to increase, with the expectation of tightened imports in the future. The iron - making water production has decreased significantly, and the demand has weakened marginally. The current supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy [14] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [15] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of coking coal declined, and there were changes in basis, spreads, etc. Spot prices remained unchanged, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and operating rate also had corresponding fluctuations [13] Iron Alloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The supply in the production area is still at a high level in the same period, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has continued to increase compared with the previous period [18] - Silicon iron: The supply in the production area remains at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. Attention should be paid to the situation of re - warehousing after the cancellation of warehouse receipts [18] Disk Operation Suggestions - Manganese silicon: The price of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price. Cautiously bearish [19] - Silicon iron: The fundamentals of silicon iron have become loose, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices. Bearish treatment [19] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron declined, and spot prices also had fluctuations. There were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and operating rate [17]