乐观情绪消化，锌价转向调整

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly last week. The results of the Sino - US high - level meeting were in line with market expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but Powell's hawkish stance reduced the expectation of a December rate cut, and the rising US dollar was negative for zinc prices. China's October PMI declined month - on - month, and mild stimulus policies are expected. - Fundamentally, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. In November, zinc smelting output is expected to increase by thousands of tons, with supply remaining high but the growth slowing. On the demand side, the demand for different zinc products varied. Overseas, the LME's new rules on positions may reduce the support for liquidity. - Overall, market risk appetite has cooled. China maintains high supply and weak demand, and social inventories are high, but zinc exports can relieve the pressure. The adjustment of LME's position system will weaken the squeeze - out pressure, and the zinc price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][9][10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Oct 24 | Oct 31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,355 | 22,355 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3019.5 | 3050 | 30.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 7.40 | 7.33 | - 0.07 | | | SHFE Inventory | 109168 | 103416 | - 5752 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 37,600 | 35,300 | - 2300 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 16.22 | 16.15 | - 0.07 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 40 | 20 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Shanghai Zinc's main contract ZN2512 first rose and then fell last week. It was strong in the early part of the week due to positive macro - expectations and weakened later. The weekly change was flat, and the price moved up on Friday night. - LME Zinc's oscillation center moved up. Despite the rising US dollar, the strong overseas structure supported the price, with a weekly increase of 1.01%. - In the spot market, by October 31, prices and premiums varied in different regions. The supply was limited at the end of the month, and the spot premium increased slightly. Transactions were mainly between traders [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - By October 31, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased by 400 yuan/metal ton, and imported ore processing fees decreased by 7.71 US dollars/dry ton. - In November, domestic zinc smelting output is expected to increase by thousands of tons. - The LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. - An explosion at Australia's Endeavor mine caused two deaths, and the company suspended operations. - A survey of 30 analysts shows that the average LME spot zinc price in 2026 is expected to be 2838 US dollars/ton, up 22% from the previous estimate. The expected supply surplus in 2025 is 80,000 tons, and in 2026 it is 239,000 tons [11][12][13]