Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market review: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - Basic logic: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - Strategy recommendation: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - Market review: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - Basic logic: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - Market review: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - Basic logic: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - Strategy recommendation: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - Market review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - Basic logic: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - Strategy recommendation: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - Market review: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - Basic logic: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - Strategy recommendation: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - Market review: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - Basic logic: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - Strategy recommendation: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - Market review: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - Basic logic: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - Strategy recommendation: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - Market review: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - Basic logic: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - Market review: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - Basic logic: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - Market review: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - Basic logic: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - Strategy recommendation: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - Market review: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - Basic logic: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - Strategy recommendation: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - Market review: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - Basic logic: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - Strategy recommendation: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - Market review: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - Basic logic: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - Strategy recommendation: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - Market review: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - Basic logic: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - Strategy recommendation: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]
中辉能化观点-20251103
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-03 03:11