宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年11月3日）-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - biased - strong respectively, with a shock - based approach. It is supported by strong expectations and shows high - level shocks [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - biased - strong respectively, with a shock - based approach. It is supported by strong costs and operates at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - Core Logic: As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.3 thousand tons per day, basically stable, and 2.2 thousand tons per day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port was 4,814, a weekly decrease of 2,406 trucks. Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia in the middle of the month, the customs clearance efficiency dropped significantly in the short term, but it has returned to normal this week, with the daily number of trucks increasing to around 1,200. On the demand side, as of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no obvious change, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - level benefits brought by the relaxation of Sino - US trade relations, as well as the strong expectations for coking coal supply due to safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - Core Logic: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. After the second round of price increases for coke, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steel Union was - 32 yuan/ton, an improvement of 9 yuan week - on - week, but still in a loss state, and the production enthusiasm has not significantly improved, with coking enterprises still having the intention to raise prices. On the demand side, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 236.36 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 3.54 thousand tons per day, and the profitability rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, the coke supply is stable, the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are marginally weakening. However, during the week, the Chinese and US presidents met and reached multiple economic and trade consensuses, and the cooling of trade frictions has improved the market sentiment, so coke futures temporarily maintain high - level operation [6].