宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年11月3日）-20251103

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For gold, short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term views are "rising", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Price Trend: Last week, the gold price oscillated downward. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, the price rebounded. After the APEC Sino - US summit, the precious metals market showed a rebound trend [3]. - Core Logic: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, in line with market expectations. However, internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards subsequent rate cuts were interpreted as hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of a December rate cut. The Sino - US tariff relaxation policies after the APEC summit also affected the market. Technically, short - term attention is on the $4000 level for the long - short game. On November 1st, new gold tax policies were announced, with more refined tax management for on - exchange gold trading, mainly affecting institutions and enterprises [3]. Copper (CU) - Price Trend: Last week, the copper price rose and then fell, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. After the APEC Sino - US summit, the copper market showed a "buy - on - rumor, sell - on - news" trend [4]. - Core Logic: The Fed's rate cut of 25 basis points in October was in line with expectations, but the hawkish signals cooled the rate - cut expectation, which was negative for copper prices. The short - term sharp rise in copper prices led to pressure at historical highs, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to close positions. Technically, continuous attention is on the support of the 10 - day moving average [4].