宝城期货动力煤早报（2025年11月3日）-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of thermal coal is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. Although the domestic thermal coal price has stabilized, the coal market's optimistic atmosphere has not reversed. With the increase in coal price, market competition intensifies, and the upward trend of coal price will slow down [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the multi - empty game intensifies, and port coal prices oscillate at a high level [1]. 3.2 Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector - Supply Side: Although the import volume of foreign trade coal is stable, more coal mines stop production after completing production targets at the end of the month. The market expects a supply contraction at the end of the year because the central safety production inspection team will enter the main production areas in November, which supports the coal price [5]. - Demand Side: In the north, many places have entered winter due to continuous cooling. In southern coastal cities, the demand decreased in the off - season after cooling in October, but the coal inventory level of coastal power plants is low, and there is still restocking demand, which supports the coal market [5]. - Inventory: As of October 31, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.169 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons and 2.729 million tons lower than the same period last year. The potential restocking demand of downstream users supports port coal prices [5].