宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年11月3日）-20251103

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In a situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue the weakly volatile operation, and the demand performance should be noted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logical summary is that the current pattern is weak, and steel prices operate under pressure [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, the spot price of steel decreased slightly, and the trading volume was average. Both the supply and demand sides of rebar increased. The production of construction steel mills was active, the output returned to a high level, and the inventory was high, increasing the supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar improved seasonally, and high - frequency demand indicators continued to rise, but it was still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the sustainability is questionable. In conclusion, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially in a situation of increasing supply and demand. The steel price is still under pressure, and the positive factor is the cost support brought by strong raw materials. It is expected that rebar will continue the weakly volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].