宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251103

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures. For soybean meal 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating", with a reference view of "oscillating strongly". For soybean oil 2601, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly". For palm 2601, the short - term view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Core Logic: China may resume purchasing US soybeans, shifting the pricing anchor of domestic soybean meal from Brazilian premiums to the CBOT US soybean futures. The expected increase in imported soybean supply will pressure the spot basis of soybean meal. Currently, the domestic port soybean inventory has reached 950 million tons, at a near - three - year high. With the smooth progress of South American soybean sowing and weak domestic demand, oil mills are facing continuous losses in crushing and will be more cautious in purchasing. In the short term, soybean meal futures prices will follow the rebound of US soybean futures, but the rebound space is restricted by industrial chain pressure [5][6] Palm Oil (P) - Core Logic: The decline in international oil prices, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the increase in supply from major oil - producing countries have reduced the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy may be postponed to 2027, shaking market confidence in long - term demand. High domestic palm oil port inventories have increased pressure on the domestic market, and short - term palm oil futures prices have broken below the lower edge of the oscillation range, showing obvious weakness [7]