电解铝期货品种周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current macro - environment is favorable, with positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade consultations and continuous efforts of domestic stable - growth policies. However, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season. The aluminum price's ability to break through above 21,500 yuan/ton remains to be seen, and the overall trend is expected to be strong with fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a small - position long position and wait for the price to rise, and spot enterprises can appropriately increase inventory [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The macro - environment is strong, and domestic main funds are bullish. But as the demand side enters the off - season, the aluminum price's upward momentum above 21,500 yuan/ton needs further observation, and it should be treated as strong with fluctuations [4][11]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy was to hold a small - position long position. This week, it is recommended that spot enterprises appropriately increase inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall View Supply - Bauxite: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea has weakened, and ore shipments are increasing. There are expectations of local mine复产, so imported ore is expected to be abundant in the fourth quarter. Domestic mine governance policies will have long - term constraints on domestic ore, and supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [9]. - Alumina: As of October 31, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 97.2 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 85.80%. The cost is lower than in the first half of the year, and the industry is still profitable. Alumina production capacity will drive continuous output growth, and the surplus will continue to expand [9]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In September, domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The annual net increase is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. In the fourth quarter, production may remain high but is unlikely to increase significantly [9]. Demand - Aluminum Profiles: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.5%. Construction profiles are still sluggish, and the industry is expected to enter the off - season in November [10]. - Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 66.4%. As November enters the off - season, the operating rate will decline. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable at 71.9%, but there is a risk of weakening terminal demand [10]. - Aluminum Cables: The weekly operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1 percentage point to 63.4%. It is expected to remain in a narrow - range fluctuation [10]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59.2%, and is expected to gradually approach the annual high. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points to 59.1%, and is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [10]. Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, remaining stable compared to last week, about 4% higher than the same period last year. It is expected to accumulate inventory again. The inventory of aluminum rods was 131,500 tons, a decrease of about 6% from last week and about 23% higher than last year [10]. - LME Aluminum: The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 18% from last week, about 24% lower than last year, and is still at a low level in recent years [10]. Profit - Alumina: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 0 yuan/ton, down from about 20 yuan/ton last week [11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,100 yuan/ton, up from 4,000 yuan/ton last week [11]. Market Expectation - The aluminum price is supported at 20,800 yuan/ton and faces pressure at 21,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the fundamentals have limited impact on the aluminum price, but the macro - sentiment at home and abroad is still relatively optimistic [11]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, the price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased moderately. The price of domestic ore remained stable, while the price of imported Guinea ore decreased. The price of alumina continued to decline, and the cost support may increase after the dry season in the southwest region [12]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, while the inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in some areas increased. The LME aluminum inventory increased significantly but is still at a low level [14][16]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.2%. Affected by multiple factors such as high aluminum prices, environmental protection restrictions, and seasonal changes, the operating rate is expected to decline slowly or fluctuate narrowly [24]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai aluminum is weak [29]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,160 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [36][37]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position continued to rise and is near the high level since April 2022. The overall market is still considered strong [39]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main contract first decreased and then increased, reaching a recent high. The main funds are bullish [42].