工业硅、多晶硅日评：区间整理-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put some pressure on the upper limit of the market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of RMB 9,300 - 9,500 per ton. For polysilicon, due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has risen again. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which may also suppress the upside space of the market [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at RMB 9,300 per ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at RMB 9,700 per ton; the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.60% to RMB 9,100 per ton [1]. - Production Situation: In October 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output increased by 31,400 tons month - on - month, a 7.5% increase, and decreased by 17,600 tons year - on - year, a 4% decrease. From January to October 2025, the cumulative industrial silicon output was 3.4699 million tons, a 16.6% year - on - year decrease. In November, the supply variable of industrial silicon mainly lies in Sichuan and Yunnan regions. The total output of industrial silicon in these two regions is expected to decrease by more than 50%, and there is a small increase expectation in the north. The national total supply is expected to decrease to below 400,000 tons, a 12% decrease [1]. - Regional Operating Rates: In Yunnan, from October 24th to October 30th, the weekly output of sample silicon enterprises was 6,265 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 54%, a significant decrease from the previous week. In November, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term order delivery needs will remain in production, and the number of remaining operating furnaces may be less than 20. In Xinjiang, the weekly output of sample silicon factories was 40,690 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 84%, a slight increase from the previous week [1]. - Investment Strategy: The silicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put some pressure on the upper limit of the market. Pay attention to the pressure level of RMB 9,300 - 9,500 per ton. The trading strategy is to operate within the range [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at RMB 51 per kilogram; the price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 0.10% to RMB 52.25 per kilogram; the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at RMB 50.50 per kilogram; the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at RMB 50.5 per kilogram; the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.66% to RMB 56,410 per ton [1]. - Supply and Demand Situation: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November may decline. On the demand side, the polysilicon market trading is relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises have a strong resistance to high - price resources, and the market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - Investment Strategy: Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has risen again. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which may suppress the upside space of the market. For previous long positions, pay attention to profit protection. The trading strategy is to lightly go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1].