焕新蓄势，价值重估

Core Viewpoints - The capital market is undergoing profound changes in its underlying logic, with a significant increase in the attractiveness of equity asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, indicating a positive development cycle ahead for the market [2][15] - The brokerage sector is expected to see performance growth potential and high cost-performance value recovery in the new cycle, with current A and H share valuations still at mid-low levels [2][6] Capital Market Building a "New Ecology" - The capital market is experiencing top-down reforms aimed at creating a healthy balance between investment and financing, with the central government elevating its strategic importance [3][18] - Policies such as the "New National Nine Articles" and the "1+N" policy system are being implemented to encourage companies to increase dividends and buybacks, enhance the delisting mechanism, and stimulate mergers and acquisitions [3][19] Incremental Capital Forming a "Positive Cycle" - Long-term funds are steadily flowing into the market, with significant increases in new account openings and private fund registrations, indicating a robust influx of incremental capital [4][36] - The total number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20.15 million in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase [41] Brokerage Business Reaching a "New Level" - The brokerage sector has seen a substantial expansion in market capacity, with a 68% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed brokerages in the first nine months of 2025 [5][16] - The A-share daily trading volume is expected to stabilize at around 2 trillion yuan, supported by strong new account openings and record-high financing balances [5][16] Positive Outlook for Brokerage Performance and High Cost-Performance Opportunities - The long-term upward trend in the capital market remains unchanged, with an expected industry ROE of 7.7% in 2026 under neutral conditions [6][17] - Current valuations for large and small A-share brokerages are still at historical mid-low levels, indicating significant potential for value recovery [6][17] Encouraging Dividends and Buybacks, Moving Towards a Mature Market - The 2024 dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 45%, with buyback amounts hitting 165.9 billion yuan, both setting historical highs [23][24] - The capital market is transitioning towards a more mature structure, with equity financing scales aligning more closely with those of mature markets [24][29] Enhancing Company Quality through Mergers and Acquisitions - The number of significant mergers and acquisitions has surged, with nearly 100 major deals in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2021-2024 [33][34] - Policies are being implemented to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the quality of listed companies and supporting the transformation of the real economy [33][34] Long-term Funds Entering the Market, Laying a Foundation for Stability - Long-term funds such as social security and pension funds are steadily growing, providing a solid foundation for the market [37][38] - The total assets of social security funds increased from 1.5 trillion yuan at the end of 2014 to 3.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating robust growth [37][38] Optimizing Foreign Capital Systems, Enhancing Allocation Space - The QFII system has undergone significant reforms to enhance the participation of foreign investors, with various measures implemented to simplify cross-border capital flow management [50]