螺纹钢周报：供需双增库存降，价格支撑存在-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level has no unexpected positive news. Fundamentally, both supply and demand of rebar increase while inventory decreases. Coupled with raw material supply disruptions, there is support for short - term rebar prices [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Rebar Futures Market Review 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: As of the end of September, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year, down 0.4% from last month; M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year - on - year, up 1.2% from last month; M0 balance was 13.58 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year - on - year, down 0.2% from last month. In the first three quarters, net cash injection was 761.9 billion yuan. From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, down 0.5% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas and water production and supply) up 1.1% year - on - year. National real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, down 13.9% year - on - year; residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, down 12.9% year - on - year. Newly - built commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, down 5.5% year - on - year [8]. - Policy information: On October 30, local time, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan. After the meeting, the US cancelled the 10% fentanyl tariff, extended the 10% reciprocal tariff for one year, suspended the entity list penetration rule in the technology field for one year, and suspended the special port - calling fees for Chinese - related ships calling at US ports for one year. China adjusted counter - measures related to fentanyl tariffs, suspended a series of rare - earth export control measures issued on October 9 for one year, and suspended counter - measures against US maritime measures for one year. The two countries will also strengthen fentanyl anti - drug cooperation and expand agricultural product trade [7]. 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Price Ratio, Basis 3.2.1 Price Ratio - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai, hot - rolled coil Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai, PB powder 61.5%Fe in Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Qingdao Port, and low - sulfur main coking coal were 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,350 yuan/ton, 802 yuan/ton, 1,570 yuan/ton, and 1,466 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly price increases were 0.31%, 0.91%, 2.81%, 3.29%, and 0.75% respectively; monthly price increases were 0.00%, 0.00%, 3.34%, 6.80%, and 3.64% respectively; annual price changes were - 8.76%, - 5.40%, 5.09%, - 16.93%, and - 14.59% respectively [23]. 3.2.2 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis data from October 21 to October 30, 2025, showed that the basis (spot - futures) ranged from 104 to 157 yuan/ton [24]. 3.3 Part 3: Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Spot - Futures) - No specific content provided 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 81.75% on October 31, 2025, and 84.71% on October 24, 2025 [36]. 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Operation - No specific content provided 3.3.6 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided 3.3.7 Weekly Steel Output - On October 31, 2025, the output of five major steel products was 789.32 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.005746614 and a month - on - month increase of 0.012922682 [45]. 3.3.8 Weekly Rebar Output - On October 31, 2025, rebar output was 212.59 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.026657652 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.125935367 [49]. 3.3.9 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - The steel mill inventory data showed fluctuations, with values such as 171.71, 184.63, 184.64, 192.34, and 158.91, and corresponding month - on - month changes [60]. 3.3.10 Social Inventory of Steel Products - The social inventory data showed values such as 430.81, 437.49, 456.41, 467.31, and 443.34, and corresponding month - on - month changes [60]. 3.3.11 Rebar Social Inventory - The rebar social inventory data showed values such as 430.81, 437.49, 456.41, 467.31, 443.34, and 471.89, and corresponding month - on - month changes [65]. 3.3.12 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided 3.3.13 Rebar Inventory in Steel Mills - No specific content provided 3.3.14 Total Rebar Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.15 Rebar Apparent Consumption - No specific content provided 3.4 Part 4: Future Outlook - Supply: Some steel mills increased production, and with the allocation of hot metal among varieties, rebar production continued to rise this week. The supply of five major steel products was 875.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.97 million tons, or 1.2%. Rebar weekly output was 212.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.52 million tons [76]. - Demand: At the end of the traditional peak season, terminal consumption showed some resilience this week. The weekly consumption of five major steel products was 916.42 million tons, with building materials consumption up 5.1% week - on - week and plate consumption up 1.3% week - on - week. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1513.74 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.13 million tons, or 2.6% [77]. - Raw materials: The supply of imported iron ore remained stable. China strengthened safety inspections on coal mines, restricting coal production. Coupled with a brief impact on Mongolian coal imports, the supply of coal and coke was weak, and there was support for prices [77].