硅铁：板块情绪与供需扰动，弱势震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to experience weak and volatile trends due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents a. Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Data: For silicon ferroalloy futures, SiFe2601 closed at 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 151,902 and an open interest of 163,466; SiFe2605 closed at 5566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,745 and an open interest of 7,516. For manganese ferroalloy futures, MnSi2601 closed at 5772 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, with a trading volume of 218,323 and an open interest of 352,439; MnSi2605 closed at 5816 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan, with a trading volume of 13,655 and an open interest of 39,646 [1] - Spot Data: The price of silicon ferroalloy (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] - Price Difference Data: The spot - futures price difference for silicon ferroalloy (spot - 01 futures) was - 250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; for manganese ferroalloy, it was - 112 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The near - far month price difference for silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2601 - 2605) was - 66 yuan/ton, and for manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2601 - 2605) was - 44 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference for MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 was 272 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; for MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 was 250 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [1] b. Macro and Industry News - Product Price Information: On October 31st, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (+25), in Gansu 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton (-10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1] - Production Information: In October, the production of manganese ferroalloy factories in Ningxia was basically unchanged, with individual factories switching from high - silicon silicon - manganese to 6517 at the end of the month, having little impact on production. The total production of silicon - manganese in Ningxia was about 21.07 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 19.97 million tons. In Inner Mongolia, some factories reduced production or switched production at the end of the month, while some resumed production after the National Day, with overall production still showing a slight increase. The total production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia in October was about 45.48 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 36.53 million tons. In October, there were 77 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in production nationwide, with 249 submerged arc furnaces in operation. The average monthly start - up rate of silicon ferroalloy in October was 50.83%, a slight decrease of 0.05% compared to September. The production was expected to be 48.9 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons compared to September, a growth rate of 2.13%, and a decrease of 0.55 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 459.6 million tons, an increase of 1.71 million tons compared to the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.37% [1][3] - Inventory Information: As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 377.64 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from the previous period; at Qinzhou Port, it was 47.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.76 million tons; at Caofeidian Port, it was 0 million tons with no inbound or outbound manganese ore this week; at Fangchenggang Port, it was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons. As of October 31st, the total manganese ore inventory was 425.61 million tons, a decrease of 9.81 million tons from the previous period [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]