信用债市场周观察：以中短信用为基本盘，二永做波段

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Adopt short - and medium - term credit as the foundation, conduct band - trading on secondary and perpetual bonds, and be cautious about chasing long - term credit. The central bank's bond - buying is not a one - time benefit. It aims to promote banks to expand their balance sheets and absorb the fourth - quarter supply. There may be more measures to encourage bank bond - buying, and the bond market is likely to turn around in the fourth quarter, but the process will not be rapid. Short - duration credit remains the core, secondary and perpetual bonds can be traded in bands, and long - term credit should be approached with caution [5][8]. - In terms of specific allocation, continue to explore the steeper parts of the 2 - 3Y yield curve. There are many entities with a 3Y - 2Y term spread of over 25bp in public bonds, and there is also a wide range of bond selection with a 5Y - 3Y term spread between 30 - 40bp [5][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly View - The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading enhanced Q4 liquidity, leading to a rapid decline in bond yields and a rise in credit bonds, especially in the medium - and long - term. Future central bank policies may further boost the bond market. Short - duration credit is the base, secondary and perpetual bonds can be traded in bands, and long - term credit should be chased cautiously [5][8]. - Suggest exploring the 2 - 3Y steeper parts of the yield curve, with favorable term - spread conditions for bond selection [5][10]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From October 27 to November 2, there was no downgrade in corporate or bond ratings. However, some companies had negative events, such as Rongqiao Group with large - scale overdue loans and commercial acceptance bills, and Greenland Holdings with a large number of new lawsuits [12][13]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - Credit bond issuance decreased significantly week - on - week, and the maturity volume also shrank. The net financing was 126 billion yuan, indicating a basic balance between inflow and outflow. Two bonds with a total scale of 700 million yuan were cancelled or postponed. The issuance cost fluctuated slightly, with the AA+ level rising slightly [13][14]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The repair slope of credit bonds of all grades and tenors increased, with a central decline of about - 6bp. Credit spreads widened at the short end and narrowed at the long end. The 5Y - 1Y term spread of all grades narrowed significantly, and the 3Y - 1Y spread narrowed slightly. The AA - AAA grade spread narrowed at the short - and medium - term and widened at the long - term. The weekly turnover rate decreased slightly to 2.02%. Only one bond was traded at a discount of over 10%, and no real - estate enterprise bonds were involved. The top five real - estate enterprises with widening spreads were Times Holdings, Yuzhou Hongtu, and Zhongjun [17][25][26].