Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of seed cotton prices on cotton futures has weakened [1]. - The cotton spot trading is sluggish, with relatively smooth transactions at local low - price levels. The acquisition of cotton by ginning factories is gradually approaching the end. The cotton yarn market is generally trading moderately, with a decrease in low - price resources and a differentiated market structure [2]. - The ICE cotton futures rose slightly last Friday, supported by the optimistic expectation of improved international trade situation, and the market will closely monitor the actual export of U.S. cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2601 closed at 13,595 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and 13,555 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.29%. The trading volume was 241,222 lots, a decrease of 61,272 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 918,452 lots, an increase of 619 lots [1]. - CY2601 closed at 19,875 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.10%, and 19,810 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume was 13,442 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 23,426 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE U.S. cotton 12 closed at 65.56 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.72% [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,414, a decrease of 20 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,444, an increase of 216 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 4, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 14, a decrease of 10 [1]. - Spot Price Data: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,719 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 14,896 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 14,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 74.16 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.28% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: - The CF1 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: According to TTEB information, the cotton spot trading is sluggish, with relatively smooth transactions at local low - price levels. The acquisition of cotton by ginning factories is gradually approaching the end. The sales basis of 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked cotton 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF01 + 900, and a small amount is below 900, excluding light - stained cotton, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2025/26 Nanjiang machine - picked cotton 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly between CF01 + 1000 - 1100, excluding light - stained cotton. The price of the same - quality 2024/25 Nanjiang old cotton is around CF01 + 900, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: According to TTEB information, the overall trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with a decrease in low - price resources. A few spinning enterprises intend to raise prices. To avoid inventory backlog, some spinning enterprises in the inland only produce according to orders. Recently, the structure of the cotton yarn market is relatively differentiated: the trading of pure - cotton compact - spun 40 - count yarn is fair; some spinning enterprises have good export orders to Pakistan; some traders report that the vehicle resources in the transportation link out of Xinjiang are currently in short supply [2]. - U.S. Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly, continuing to be supported by the optimistic expectation of improved international trade situation, and the market will closely monitor the actual export of U.S. cotton [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].
棉花：籽棉价格对棉花期货的影响减弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-03 04:08