烧碱：成本支撑，盘面或估值修复

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Due to the significant drop in liquid chlorine prices over the weekend, the cost of caustic soda has increased substantially. The current price of the 01 contract is in a loss - making state, so the valuation is low. Caustic soda may have a valuation repair market in the short - term due to cost support. In the long run, the alumina production cut will lead to a negative feedback in the industrial chain, and the situation can only be changed by supply - side production cuts. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 01 contract is 2310, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 780, the price of Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures market is 2438, and the basis is 128 [1] Spot News - The market price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has dropped by 100 - 150 yuan. There are subsidies for truck - loaded liquid chlorine leaving the factory in different regions of Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine at Jiangsu Fuqiang has dropped by 150 with a factory - leaving subsidy of 50 - 1 yuan [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market has been shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The impact of alumina's production launch and cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]