Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It presents price, trading volume, and position data for these oils in both the futures and spot markets. Additionally, it includes macro and industry news that may impact the market, such as palm oil export data, Indonesia's palm oil reference price and export tax, USDA report schedules, and soybean crushing and inventory forecasts. Detailed Summary Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Prices: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures all showed declines, with palm oil down 0.72% (day session) and 1.26% (night session), soybean oil down 0.49% (day session) and 0.44% (night session), and rapeseed oil down 1.12% (day session) and 1.19% (night session) [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil and soybean oil trading volumes decreased, while rapeseed oil trading volume increased. Palm oil and soybean oil open interest increased, while rapeseed oil open interest decreased [1]. - Spot Prices: Palm oil and rapeseed oil spot prices decreased, while soybean oil spot prices remained unchanged [1]. - Basis: The basis for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions are -64 yuan/ton, 372 yuan/ton, and 428 yuan/ton, respectively [1]. - Price Spreads: The spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil, soybean oil and palm oil, and the 1 - 5 spreads for each oil all showed changes [1]. Macro and Industry News - Palm Oil Exports: AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31 increased by 4.31% month - on - month to 1,501,945 tons, and ITS reported an increase of 5.19% to 1,639,089 tons [2][3]. - Indonesia's Palm Oil Policy: Indonesia set the November reference price for crude palm oil at $963.75 per ton, slightly higher than October, with an unchanged export tax of $124 per ton and a 10% special tax [5]. - USDA Reports: Due to the government shutdown, the USDA's October reports were not released. The crop production report and global agricultural supply - demand forecast report are now scheduled for November 14 [5]. - US Soybean Crushing and Inventory: Analysts expect US soybean crushing in September to reach 6.163 million short tons (205.4 million bushels), a 10.1% increase from September 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory as of September 30 is 1.681 billion pounds, an 8.4% increase from September 2024 [6]. - US Biodiesel Production: US biodiesel production using soybean oil decreased to 1.041 billion pounds in August from 1.108 billion pounds in July [7]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Planting and Harvesting: In Brazil, the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average. In Canada, the rapeseed harvesting progress in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta is high, and the export volume in the week ending October 26 increased by 25.4% [7][8]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity for palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9].
棕榈油:油脂驱动匮乏,关注下方支撑,豆油:美豆反弹,豆棕做扩维持
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-03 04:02