原油：OPEC+停止2026Q1增产，暂时观望

Group 1: Oil Price Performance - WTI December crude oil futures rose $0.41 per barrel, or 0.68%, to $60.98 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures rose $0.07 per barrel, or 0.11%, to $65.07 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose 4.20 yuan per barrel, or 0.91%, to 463.60 yuan per barrel [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Arbitrage Analysis Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows into USGC are closed, indicating that the price of light crude oil in the Atlantic Basin is too high relative to the US domestic benchmark WTI MEH, lacking import economics. This reflects sufficient domestic supply in the US or high trans - Atlantic freight costs. The heavy crude oil arbitrage into USGC is also generally closed, but some American heavy oils have relatively small negative values, showing strong competitiveness against Mars [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The market shows differentiation. Arbitrage from the North Sea and Algeria is open, indicating that the crude oil in these regions has a price advantage over the West African benchmark Bonny Light and may be more favored by USAC refineries. Arbitrage from Saudi Arabia and Angola is closed, indicating weak competitiveness [3] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - In the European market, arbitrage from the US is closed, while that from Azerbaijan, Algeria, and Nigeria is open. This shows that in the Atlantic Basin, Mediterranean and West African crude oils are more competitive than the North Sea Forties benchmark and may dominate the supply to Europe [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage into the Mediterranean is severely closed, indicating that Urals crude oil has absolute price competitiveness in the local market, highlighting its position as the regional benchmark [7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Under the cracking configuration, all alternative crude oil arbitrage relative to Russian ESPO crude oil is severely closed, highlighting ESPO's huge cost advantage in Northeast Asian cracking refineries. Under the coking configuration, there is differentiation. Arbitrage of heavy crude oils from Ecuador and the US is open, showing significant economic benefits for Northeast Asian coking refineries [8] Group 3: Key Market News - OPEC Secretariat announced receiving compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman to cover over - target production from last month to June 2026 [10] - OPEC+ eight countries' ministers decided to increase oil production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and then suspend production increase from January to March 2026 due to seasonal factors. The 1.65 million barrels per day production cut may be partially or fully restored depending on market conditions [10] - Market sources said OPEC+ will approve a small increase in December production [10] - Iran received news of resuming negotiations with Washington and will announce details at an appropriate time [10] - Iranian President said Tehran will rebuild its nuclear facilities "with greater strength" [10] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with the range of [- 2,2] and classifications including weak, weakly - bearish, neutral, weakly - bullish, and strong [10][11]