棉花周报：上方套保压力，逢高布空策略-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a bearish view on the cotton industry and suggests investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The core view is bearish. The upward movement of seed cotton purchase prices and low commercial inventory support the market, but there is some hedging pressure above after the market rebounds. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the mediocre demand performance, the price may still be dominated by a bearish outlook [3] 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - Supply: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 287.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 285 - 300 million tons. China's cotton production is expected to be 708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The domestic production is generally expected to be 750 million tons, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons, and the quality is better than last year [3] - Demand: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market was trading lightly this week, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases [3] - Inventory: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, an increase of 69.85 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons from the end of September [3] - Warehouse Receipts: As of October 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2434, with 1228 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 14.64 million tons [3] - Basis: As of October 30, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,050 yuan/ton [3] - Cost: In 2025, the planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu was between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton was stable at 7.1 - 7.2 yuan/kg [3] - Macro - environment: The US cancelled the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on China, and the 24% reciprocal tariff remained suspended for another year. The US government shutdown affected data release. Domestically, policies to boost demand are expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [3] 3.2 02 Data Charts - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. Global consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. Consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to increase slightly to 2.613 million tons [10] - China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA): In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11] - China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO): In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, and consumption is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [12][13] - US Cotton Weather: As of September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year [16] - 9 - month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion: The average yield per mu was between 460 - 470 kg. The expected purchase price of seed cotton was around 6.2 yuan/kg. The old cotton inventory in Xinjiang was at a three - year low, and most yarn mills were operating at full capacity but with narrowed profit margins [23][24][25] - Cotton and Yarn Imports: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.7%. From January to September 2025, cumulative yarn imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.2% [26][28] - Cotton Commercial Inventory: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 1.7202 million tons, an increase of 0.6985 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]