Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is that short - term geopolitical and macro - level positive factors have been mostly digested. The market driver has entered a vacuum period, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals, but the pressure has not been relieved. Coupled with the uncertainty of the OPEC+ meeting, the market is in a low - level oscillation with a risk of decline. Without new positive factors, the fundamentals will continue to suppress, and the oil price is likely to fall within the oscillation range to digest the previous emotional premium [1]. - In the short - term, the trading logic is mainly the game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - level emotions. In the long - term, it is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with a continuous supply surplus pressure [3][4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term geopolitical and macro - level positive factors have been digested. The market has entered a vacuum period, and the focus is back on fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on November 2nd is a key variable. Iraq's request to increase its quota may lead to an unexpected meeting result. Without new positive factors, the oil price is likely to fall within the 60 - 65 US dollars oscillation range [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is expected to have a short - term rebound and repair, and a medium - term weak oscillation. - For the unilateral strategy, short positions can be taken when Brent rebounds to 66 - 68 US dollars, with a stop - loss at 70 US dollars. - For the arbitrage strategy, a reverse arbitrage is recommended. - For the options strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [7]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: - The US sanctions on Russian energy companies led to concerns about supply, pushing the Brent crude oil to rise 7.6% in a single week, and the near - month WTI and Brent crude oil prices approached 62 US dollars/barrel and exceeded 66 US dollars/barrel respectively [8]. - The significant decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories implies an improvement in demand, which may support the oil price [9]. - The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the demand expectation and provides short - term support for the oil price [10]. - Negative Information: - Fed Chairman Powell said that a December interest rate cut is not certain, and the market's pricing probability for a December rate cut dropped from 92% to 70% [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 2nd will discuss the December production policy. The mainstream expectation is a continued small - scale increase of 13.7 million barrels per day. Iraq's request to increase its quota from 4.4 million to 5.5 million barrels per day may disrupt the balance. If the increase exceeds expectations, the oil price may fall to 60 US dollars; otherwise, it may rebound to 65 US dollars [13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Volume - Price and Capital Interpretation - Trend Analysis: The crude oil price first fell and then stabilized this week. The position was at a high level, and the trend indicators improved, with the market sentiment gradually warming up. The SC position percentile was 79.26%, indicating an active capital side [15]. - Domestic Market: The disk rebounded and repaired, breaking the previous downward trend. The SC2512 rose 6.87% this week, closing at 468.9 yuan/barrel. As of October 31st, the INE crude oil futures position was 74,991 lots, a decrease of 8,814 lots week - on - week [17][18]. - Foreign Market: On Friday, the US oil main contract closed down 0.57% at 60.98 US dollars/barrel, a weekly decrease of 0.85%; the Brent crude oil main contract settled at 65.07 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.32% from last Friday. Affected by the US government shutdown, the CFTC did not release the WTI position data. As of October 28th, the ICE Brent crude oil futures position was 3,025,757 contracts, a decrease of 77,164 contracts week - on - week; the managed fund net long position was 173,887 contracts, an increase of 122,096 contracts week - on - week [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of October 31st, the Brent monthly spread (01 - 03) was 0.87 US dollars/barrel, the WTI monthly spread (01 - 03) was 0.72 US dollars/barrel, and the SC monthly spread (01 - 03) was - 0.7 yuan/barrel. The monthly spreads of both domestic and foreign crude oils weakened [26]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of October 24th, the SC - Brent spread was - 0.56 US dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was 3.52 US dollars/barrel. The spread between SC and Brent crude oil weakened again due to the stronger support of geopolitical risk premiums for foreign crude oil [30]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of October 24th, the crude oil cracking spreads in the European market strengthened comprehensively this week. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel cracking was stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, the cracking spreads weakened, and refinery profits continued to decline [38]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 barrels per day. From October 25th - 31st, the number of active US oil rigs was 414, a week - on - week decrease of 6 [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US refinery crude oil input was 15.219 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 511,000 barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate was 86.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2 percentage points. From October 24th - 30th, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China was 62.38%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03 percentage points, and that of major refineries was 80.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 percentage points [54]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 24th, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 415,966 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6,858 thousand barrels; the strategic petroleum inventory was 409,097 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 533 thousand barrels; the Cushing region's petroleum inventory was 22,565 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1,334 thousand barrels. As of October 29th, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 108.42, a week - on - week decrease of 1.13%, and the storage capacity accounted for 59.23% of the total capacity, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67 percentage points [56]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US crude oil export volume was 4.361 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 158,000 barrels per day, and the petroleum product export volume was 6.666 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 687,000 barrels per day. From October 14th - 20th, the Middle East's seaborne crude oil export volume was 16.4168 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. This week, Russia's seaborne crude oil export volume was 3.8752 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 20.19% [58]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA continued to raise its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. It is expected that in 2025, the global production will be 105.85 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.67 million barrels per day compared to 2024; in 2026, it will be 107.17 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.31 million barrels per day compared to 2025. - OPEC maintained its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. In 2025, the demand will be 105.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In 2026, it will be 106.52 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day compared to 2025. - IEA slightly lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026 in its October report [61][62].
南华期货原油产业周报：短期利好出尽，基本面回归主导-20251103
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-03 03:59