Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold and observe [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell call options [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - exit long positions at high levels or short - term range trading; Aluminum - buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - oscillate; Caustic soda - oscillate weakly; Soda ash - short - term bearish on 01 contract; Styrene - oscillate; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate; Polyolefins - wide - range oscillation [1] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate strongly; PTA - oscillate; Apples - oscillate strongly; Red dates - oscillate [1] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Hogs - rebound under pressure; Eggs - rebound under pressure; Corn - weakly oscillate; Soybean meal - rebound from lows; Oils - weakly oscillate [1] Core Views - After the end of Sino - US trade negotiations, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will oscillate until the end - of - year changes. The bond market environment is conducive to the spread - compression strategy, but there are still risks in the short - end Treasury pricing and institutional positions. The black building materials market has a tight supply - demand pattern, and the double - coking market is oscillating. The non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - environment, showing different trends. The energy and chemical market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies, with overall weak fundamentals. The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand changes, showing an oscillating and slightly strong trend. The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, with different trends for different varieties [5][10][20] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Oscillate in the short - term, medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips. After the end of events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking direction catalysts [5] - Treasury Bonds: Oscillate. The bond market environment is conducive to the spread - compression strategy, but there are risks in short - end pricing and institutional positions. Keep a balanced allocation [5] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking: Oscillate. The coal market has a tight supply - demand pattern, with prices rising steadily and improving sentiment. Pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [6] - Rebar: Oscillate. After the end of macro events in late October, black prices fell. The rebar price is at a neutral - low valuation, and with the improvement in demand and inventory reduction, it is advisable to buy on dips in the RB2601 contract, focusing on the range of 3000 - 3200 [7] - Glass: Sell call options. The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weakening downstream demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and hold until maturity [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level oscillation. The copper price reached a record high and then fell. It is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade, supply disruptions, and Fed policies. The short - term supply - demand support is limited, and it is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term range trading [10] - Aluminum: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price of Guinea bauxite is under pressure, and the production capacity and inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum have changed. The demand is weakening, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [11] - Nickel: Neutral, oscillate. The nickel market has an oversupply pattern in the medium to long - term, with uncertainties in supply policies. It is recommended to observe or short on rallies [16] - Tin: Neutral, oscillate. The production of refined tin has decreased, and the supply is expected to improve. The downstream demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 12 - contract range of 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [16] - Silver and Gold: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies, there is support in the medium - term, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 12 - contract ranges [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Neutral, oscillate. The PVC has high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export support. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 4600 - 4800 [19][20] - Caustic Soda: Neutral, weakly oscillate. Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to focus on the 2400 resistance level of the 01 contract [21][23] - Styrene: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by cost, supply, and demand, it is recommended to focus on the range of 6300 - 6700 [23] - Rubber: Neutral, oscillate. The rubber price is affected by raw material prices and macro - sentiment, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on the 15,000 support level [25] - Urea: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of urea has decreased, and the demand has increased, with inventory changes. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 1600 - 1700 [26][27] - Methanol: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 2230 - 2330 [27][28] - Polyolefins: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The polyolefin market is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to focus on the 6900 support level for L2601 and 6600 for PP2601 [28][30] - Soda Ash: Bearish on the 01 contract. The soda ash market has a supply - demand imbalance, with high inventory and rising costs. It is recommended to maintain a short position on the 01 contract [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Neutral, oscillate strongly. Affected by global cotton supply - demand changes, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [35] - PTA: Low - level oscillation. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is recommended to focus on the range of 4400 - 4700 [35][36] - Apples: Neutral, oscillate strongly. The apple production quality has decreased, and the delivery cost is expected to rise, with a strong price trend [36] - Red Dates: Neutral, oscillate. The red date price is stable, and attention should be paid to the price changes after the new - season listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: Rebound under pressure. In the short - term, the pig price oscillates, and in the medium to long - term, the supply is high and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to capacity reduction [39][40] - Eggs: Rebound under pressure. The egg price is supported in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and observe the 01 - contract [41][42] - Corn: Weakly oscillate. The new - season corn supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 2170 - 2200 resistance level [43][44] - Soybean Meal: Rebound from lows. Affected by soybean procurement and cost, it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels for the M2601 contract and conduct basis trading for spot enterprises [45] - Oils: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. Affected by supply - demand and policies, it is recommended to focus on the support levels of the 01 - contracts and pay attention to spread trading strategies [46][51]
期货市场交易指引：2025年11月03日-20251103
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-03 03:59