LLDPE：计划外检修增加，关注进口压力

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE market is in a volatile situation. The price of raw material crude oil has declined, and PE follows the cost change. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid - demand support, leading to inventory reduction. There is no strong short - term driving force for continuous decline. The supply - side has some new situations, and medium - term supply - demand pressure needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6899, with a daily decline of 0.99%. The trading volume was 342,532, and the position change was 15,690. The 01 - contract basis was - 79 (compared to - 98 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 75 (compared to - 62 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6820 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 7110 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, showing a slight decline compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - This week, the domestic PE market price fluctuated narrowly. The upstream crude oil price dropped slightly, and there was no unexpected positive news from the Sino - US negotiation. The overall maintenance loss increased this week, and the domestic supply pressure was slightly relieved. On the demand side, the demand for greenhouse films and mulch films showed signs of peaking and falling, and the overall transaction volume was limited [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material price decline causes PE to follow the cost change. The downstream rigid demand supports inventory reduction. The short - term continuous decline is not strongly driven, and the market is in a volatile state. The supply - side has some new device situations, and the short - term contradiction is not significant. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high - capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].