LPG：需求改善有限，盘面估值偏高，丙烯：供应预期收缩，宽松格局有所改善

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high - Propylene supply is expected to contract, and the oversupply situation has improved [1] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: PG2512 closed at 4,293 with a daily increase of 0.16% and a night - session close of 4,286 with a decrease of 0.16%. PG2601 closed at 4,213 with a daily increase of 0.21% and a night - session close of 4,206 with a decrease of 0.17%. PL2601 closed at 6,009 with a daily decrease of 1.14% and a night - session close of 6,006 with a decrease of 0.05%. PL2602 closed at 6,078 with a daily decrease of 1.14% and a night - session close of 6,076 with a decrease of 0.03% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: PG2512 had a trading volume of 73,634 (an increase of 5,847 from the previous day) and an open interest of 106,040 (an increase of 1,287). PG2601 had a trading volume of 11,489 (an increase of 1,510) and an open interest of 28,420 (an increase of 2,219). PL2601 had a trading volume of 23,828 (an increase of 10,938) and an open interest of 7,956 (a decrease of 1,107). PL2602 had a trading volume of 17,031 (an increase of 11,227) and an open interest of 5,266 (a decrease of 2) [1] - Price Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG12 contract was 107 (compared to 114 the previous day), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG12 contract was 157 (compared to 164 the previous day). The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and the PL01 contract were - 109, - 59, and - 84 respectively, compared to - 138, - 78, and - 53 the previous day [1] - Key Industrial Chain Data: The PDH operating rate was 73.9% (compared to 71.7% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 68.0% (compared to 67.8% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 43.6% (compared to 44.9% last week) [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] 3.3 Market Information - On October 31, 2025, the December CP paper cargo price for propane was 487 USD/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and for butane was 472 USD/ton (a decrease of 4 USD/ton from the previous trading day). The January CP paper cargo price for propane was 494 USD/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day) [5] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different capacities and maintenance time ranges [6] - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Huaxing Petrochemical, Rizhao (Overseas CNOOC), etc., with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, and maintenance time ranges [6]