黑色建材日报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile trend. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and the positive signals released by the Sino-US summit, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future, but the demand is still weak in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The current macro factors are more important price - influencing factors than the weak fundamentals [11]. - Regarding manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. Silicon iron is also likely to follow the black sector, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.87945 million lots, a decrease of 15,466 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%). The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, a decrease of 298 tons. The main contract position was 1.470219 million lots, a decrease of 3067 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the production was still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.31% (- 2.50). The position changed by - 11,268 lots to 540,300 lots. The weighted position was 921,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.36% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, with Australia remaining flat, Brazil increasing, and non - mainstream countries slightly decreasing. The near - end arrival volume was at a low level this year. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output decreased, the number of overhauled blast furnaces was much larger than that of restarted ones, and the steel mill profitability reached a new low this year. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory declined. The iron ore demand continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On October 31, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 1.20% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.90% at 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5530 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the futures [9]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% (- 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 16,059 lots to 408,543 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 421 market price was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 200 yuan/ton for the main contract [13]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% (+ 1460). The weighted contract position changed by + 9166 lots to 258,099 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [16]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists. Although the production in the southwest region is decreasing during the dry season, the production in the northwest region is increasing. The demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. - For polysilicon, with some production capacity starting maintenance, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The policy expectations have a strong impact on prices [17]. 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash 3.5.1 Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1083 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.73% (- 8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million cases, a decrease of 823,000 cases (- 1.24%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.81% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1175 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with the heavy soda ash inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and the light soda ash inventory increasing by 48,000 tons [21]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - For glass, the supply is loose, the enterprise inventory is accumulating, the demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the production line operation in the Shahe area [20]. - For soda ash, affected by the weak glass market, the price is under pressure. The cost increase forms a certain bottom support, but the de - stocking process is slow. It is expected to continue a narrow - range shock in the short term [22].