Group 1 - The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks has significant upward potential, with the Hang Seng Index PE at 11.9 times and the Hang Seng Tech PE at 23.3 times, indicating they are at 84% and 32% historical percentiles respectively, suggesting room for recovery [6][7][11] - Hong Kong stocks are positioned as a gathering place for innovative assets in China, with sectors like internet, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividends expected to support the ongoing bull market [5][6][59] - The correlation between Hong Kong and A-share markets is increasing, indicating that future driving factors for Hong Kong stocks will increasingly come from domestic influences [14][16] Group 2 - The inflow of incremental funds into Hong Kong stocks is highly certain, with expectations of over 1.5 trillion yuan in southbound capital inflows in 2026, driven by public funds, insurance capital, and retail investors [28][43][52] - Foreign capital has shown signs of stabilization and potential return, with a significant portion of foreign investment in Chinese assets currently at a low allocation level, suggesting room for recovery [29][30][39] - Domestic capital has been gaining pricing power, with southbound funds expected to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks, driven by the attractiveness of innovative and scarce assets [43][46][59] Group 3 - The scarcity of quality assets in Hong Kong stocks is a strong support factor for the market, with historical periods of outperformance linked to the presence of unique assets that attract incremental capital [55][61] - The current economic transition in China is creating opportunities for sectors like AI technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to outperform [59][60][61] - The trend of Chinese companies returning to Hong Kong for listings is expected to enhance the accumulation of quality assets in the market, further narrowing the valuation gap with A-shares [61][62] Group 4 - The technology sector in Hong Kong is anticipated to be the main focus in 2026, driven by the AI wave and supportive policies, with expectations of improved fundamentals and valuation uplift [65][66][68] - The valuation of Hong Kong technology stocks is currently attractive, with potential for significant appreciation as the sector benefits from AI-driven growth and increased foreign investment [68][69]
2026年港股策略展望：迈向新高度
Haitong Securities International·2025-11-03 04:34