三季报上市钢企的盈利处于什么水平？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [11] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the average net profit per ton for listed steel companies was 92 CNY/ton, an increase of 14 CNY/ton quarter-on-quarter, positioning it at the 68th percentile since 2021. This indicates that the industry's profitability is higher than most periods in the current downcycle, reflecting the elasticity of steel profits recovering from the bottom due to anti-involution expectations and the easing trend in coking coal [2][7] - Compared to the average net profit of nearly 400-500 CNY/ton in Q2-Q3 2021, there remains significant room for upward profit recovery. Looking ahead to 2026, with the implementation of anti-involution policies and the easing trend in iron ore, the steel industry may exhibit stronger recovery momentum [2][7] Summary by Sections Q3 Profitability of Listed Steel Companies - The average net profit per ton for listed steel companies in Q3 2025 was 92 CNY/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14 CNY/ton, indicating a high profitability level compared to the downcycle [2][7] - The profitability is expected to improve further in 2026 due to the anticipated easing of iron ore prices and the implementation of anti-involution policies [2][7] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Recent infrastructure demand has led to a year-on-year increase in apparent steel consumption by 1.79% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.25%, with long products up by 5.51% and flat products up by 1.50% [4] - Daily average pig iron production has decreased to approximately 2.36 million tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.54 thousand tons per day, while total steel inventory has decreased by 2.83% quarter-on-quarter [5] Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the average prices for rebar and hot-rolled steel were 3,275 CNY/ton and 3,384 CNY/ton, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 3.9% and 4.7% [6] - The average prices for iron ore and metallurgical coke were 730 CNY/ton and 1,455 CNY/ton, reflecting quarter-on-quarter increases of 3.3% and 2.0% [6] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the potential for cost easing and supply-side contraction to drive a bottom reversal in the steel industry, with a focus on the opportunities arising from anti-involution policies and the expected release of new capacities in iron and coke [26][27]