红枣周报：红枣供需双压，下期现价格驱动逻辑分析-20251103

Group 1: Report Summary - The report analyzes the price - driving logic of jujube futures and spot under the dual pressure of supply and demand, and provides corresponding operation strategies [5][8][9] Group 2: Market Conditions Futures Price - Since October 20, the jujube futures market has declined continuously, with a cumulative decline of 11.17%. As of last Friday's close, the CJ601 contract was reported at 10,145 yuan/ton, down 1.46%, with a trading volume of 245,521 lots and an open interest of 180,474 lots [5][13] Spot Price - The maturity of Xinjiang jujubes is earlier than last year. The orchard - booking in Hotan and Qiemo is basically completed and in the shipping stage. The mainstream orchard - booking price is 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg. The unified - grade prices in Aksu, Alar and Kashgar are stable at 6.75 yuan/kg, 7.15 yuan/kg and 7.5 yuan/kg respectively [6][17] - The prices in the sales areas are under pressure and the trading is light. The arrival in Guangdong Ruyifang decreased by 0.5 trucks compared with the previous week. The prices in markets such as Cui'erzhuang and Henan are in different ranges [7][20] Group 3: Inventory, Profit, and Trade Inventory - The inventory of 36 sample enterprises last week was 9,348 tons, a 2.23% decrease from the previous week and a 73.07% increase year - on - year. The old jujubes are not digested and the new ones are about to be listed, increasing short - term supply pressure [7][24] Profit - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is 5.33 yuan/kg (2024 season). The first - grade finished product price in Hebei's sales area is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 650 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 2.32 yuan/kg, a 0.05 - yuan/kg decrease from the previous week [28] Import and Export - In September 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,283,671 kg, with an export value of 36,347,933 yuan and an average export price of 15,916.449 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.43% from the previous month and 13.54% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to September was 23,548,402 kg, a 5.12% increase year - on - year [32] Group 4: Outlook and Strategies Market Outlook - Jujubes are at the core node of the alternation of old and new supplies. The new jujubes in the producing areas are harvested earlier. The high inventory of old jujubes and weak demand exacerbate the supply - demand imbalance. If the warehouse receipt registration scale increases unexpectedly, it will increase the pressure on the near - month contract. The market will be in a weak shock pattern [8][33] Operation Strategies - For single - side trading, adopt a short - term high - selling strategy and pay attention to the purchase price in the producing areas, transactions and sales in the sales areas. For arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [9][34]