市场缺乏驱动，价格震荡延续

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market lacks clear directional drivers. The supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals limit the upside potential of prices. The market is expected to continue in a weak and fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will trigger more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options opportunistically [39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 ranged from 1,221 to 1,260 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. As of the afternoon close on November 31, 2025, the contract fell 4 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.33%, closing at 1,225 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 2.29%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, up 1.95% from the previous week [7][10]. Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 815,600 tons, up 15,200 tons week - on - week, while heavy soda ash inventory was 886,400 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week [8][15]. 3. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Situation Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, with light soda ash production at 337,800 tons (up 7,200 tons week - on - week) and heavy soda ash production at 419,700 tons (up 9,800 tons week - on - week). - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, with the ammonia - soda process at 91.09% (unchanged week - on - week), the co - production process at 77.90% (up 1.67% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons at 90.27% (up 2.29% week - on - week) [10][12]. Inventory Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,600 tons or 0.57%. Light soda ash inventory increased by 15,200 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 5,600 tons [15]. Shipment Analysis - On October 30, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 757,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.53%. The overall shipment rate was 100.01%, up 0.23 percentage points week - on - week [16]. Profit Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 41.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.30 yuan/ton. - As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process was - 165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [20][24]. 4. Downstream Industry Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the 23rd. From the 24th to the 30th, the float glass production was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged week - on - week but a year - on - year increase of 1.28%. - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million weight boxes or 3.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous period [27][31]. 5. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most products in the domestic soda ash market remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 8 yuan/ton or 1.05% to 770 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 36 yuan/ton or 1.65% to 2,219 yuan/ton. The price of float glass decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 1.68% to 1,167 yuan/ton [37]. 6. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The core contradiction of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" in the fundamentals remained prominent. - Supply pressure increased further, with weekly production and capacity utilization rising. Demand improvement was limited, and new orders were insufficient. - Inventory pressure was not relieved, with the total inventory of manufacturers continuing to accumulate, especially the inventory of light soda ash. - Profit conditions deteriorated further, with both the ammonia - soda and co - production processes in deeper losses. Cost support was not enough to reverse the supply - demand pattern [38].