豆粕月报：中美贸易转变，豆粕期价探底反弹-20251103

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Sino-US Trade Transformation, Soybean Meal Futures Prices Bottom Out and Rebound" and is prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures [1][2] - The report was released on November 3, 2025, with Yao Zhanqi as the agricultural products sector researcher [2] Group 2: Market Review - In October 2025, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted soybean meal rose 2.58%, closing at 2940, while the weighted rapeseed meal fell 0.74%, closing at 2367 [5][8] - In the international market, US soybeans rose 11.42%, closing at 1115.00, and US soybean meal rose 17.64%, closing at 321.40 [5][8] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report showed that the 2025/26 US soybean harvest area was raised by 200,000 acres to 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre was lowered by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels, and the production was raised by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels [13] - The US soybean crush volume was raised by 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, the export volume was lowered by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels (a six - year low), and the ending inventory was raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels [13] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global 2025/26 soybean production forecast was 425.87 million tons (down from 426.39 million tons in August), and the ending inventory forecast was 123.99 million tons (down from 124.90 million tons in August) [5][17] China's Soybean Imports - As of September 2025, China's monthly soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons, at a historically high level [18] Oil Mill Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0044 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,300 tons, at a historically high level [20] Pig Farming Profit - As of October 31, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, at a historical average level [21] Feed Production - As of September 2025, feed production was 31.287 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% in the month, at a historically high level [22] Group 4: Cross - Variety Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 74.2 yuan per ton, and that of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 122.3 yuan per ton. The price of the main soybean meal futures contract was 3,021 yuan per ton [24] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Dalian soybean oil to soybean meal futures main contracts was 2.69, at a historical average level [26] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal to Dalian soybean meal futures main contracts was 0.79, and the price difference was - 633 yuan per ton [27] Group 5: Outlook - On October 30, 2025, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a consensus on agricultural trade and phased tariff mitigation. China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next three years, which strongly supports the US soybean futures price [6][30] - The rise in US soybean futures prices drives up domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices. However, the high - level of oil mill crushing and abundant soybean meal supply limit the price increase. After the Sino - US economic and trade forum, the tariff policy will provide clearer guidance for the soybean meal market [7][30]