Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, as the process of capacity optimization progresses, the market supply - demand relationship will gradually improve, and the far - month contracts are relatively supported due to the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction. In the medium - term, with high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to fall rather than rise. In the short - term, pig prices may fluctuate due to multiple factors. Currently, the supply pressure remains high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to fundamentally change in the short - term, so pig prices may continue to be under pressure, and the market may maintain range - bound fluctuations [7][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - In October 2025, the main contract of live hog futures switched from LH2511 to LH2601, which fluctuated widely after a gap - down opening and dropped significantly overall. By the end of October, the main contract LH2601 fell 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.88%, and closed at 11815 yuan/ton [6][13]. (2) Spot Price - As of October 23, 2025, the national average live hog price was 12.32 yuan/kg, down 0.95 yuan/kg from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of October 31, the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of October 23, the average price of piglets was 25.13 yuan/kg, down 3.12 yuan/kg from the previous month. The prices of 20 - kg foreign - ternary piglets in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan also dropped significantly compared to the previous month [17][21][25]. 2. Supply - Demand Balance Situation (1) Global Live Hog Supply - Demand Balance - According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live hog supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, an increase of 13,929 thousand heads year - on - year, and the global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, an increase of 505 thousand tons year - on - year [32]. (2) China's Live Hog Supply - Demand Balance - According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live hog supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, an increase of 11,781 thousand heads year - on - year, and China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, an increase of 592 thousand tons year - on - year [39]. 3. Supply - Side Situation (1) Year - on - Year Live Hog Inventory - As of September 2025, the national live hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, and was at a relatively low historical level [45]. (2) Reproductive Sow Inventory - As of September 2025, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 30 thousand heads (0.07%) and a year - on - year decrease of 270 thousand heads (0.66%), and was at the lowest historical level [50]. (3) Live Hog Slaughter - In the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live hog slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads (1.85%), and was at a relatively high level in the past five years [55]. (4) Pork Production - As of the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative pork production was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons (3.02%), and was at the highest level in the past five years [61]. (5) China's Pork Imports - In September 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 80 thousand tons, the same as the previous year and a month - on - month decrease of 20%, and were at the lowest level in the past five years [66]. 4. Demand - Side Situation (1) Slaughter Volume of Designated Live Hog Slaughtering Enterprises in China - In September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises in China was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 million heads (6.99%), and was at the highest level in the past five years [73]. (2) Pork and Main Meat Production - As of September 30, 2025, the national cumulative main meat production was 731.2 million tons, of which the cumulative pork production was 436.8 million tons, accounting for 59.74% [77]. 5. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.46 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month, and the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.26 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 2025, the feed production was 31.287 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, and was at the highest level in the past five years [80][86]. 6. Breeding Benefit Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 179.72 yuan/head, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the broiler chicken breeding profit was - 1.1 yuan/bird, all at relatively low historical levels [93][100][105]. 7. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of October 31, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 5.54. According to the standard, the live hog price is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the national reserve operation frequency has increased recently [110]. 8. Recent Policies and Conferences in the Live Hog Industry (1) Live Hog Capacity Regulation Enterprise Symposium - On September 16, the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium, involving capacity control of reproductive sows, restriction of "secondary fattening", and weight reduction of live hog slaughter. The official proposed to reduce the reproductive sow inventory to 39.5 million heads, and many leading pig enterprises responded to the regulation [112][113]. (2) Video Conference on Live Hog Quarantine and Slaughter Work - On October 15, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to strengthen live hog quarantine and slaughter work, emphasizing the importance of quarantine and slaughter supervision, and requiring further optimization of related work to ensure pork product quality and safety [114]. 9. Fundamental Analysis - In October 2025, the national live hog spot price, binary sow price, and piglet price all declined. The supply pressure remains high, and the actual capacity reduction is slow. The inventory of frozen pork has increased due to the slowdown in sales. The demand has recovered to some extent with the drop in temperature, but the increase is limited. The breeding profit is in a loss state [115][116]. 10. Future Outlook - The same as the core viewpoints, in the long - term, the supply - demand relationship will improve; in the medium - term, pig prices are likely to fall; in the short - term, prices may fluctuate. The current supply pressure is high, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure [7][117]. 11. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main live hog contract in November may maintain low - level range - bound fluctuations. For single - side trading, take a range - bound approach and gradually stop profiting on previous short positions; for arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see for the time being [8][118][119].
供需维持偏松格局，猪价或将承压运行
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:09