Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to experience range - bound trading in the short term due to the multi - factor game on the fundamentals. The macro market's positive news has been realized, dragging down the rubber price center, and the decline of synthetic rubber will also affect the natural rubber price. Although the supply side has some support, there is an expectation of increased supply later. The terminal consumption shows fair performance, but demand lacks remarkable highlights. The natural rubber inventory is continuously decreasing, but the decline rate is slowing down [8][9][89]. Summary by Related Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2601 ranged from 15,030 to 15,670 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on the afternoon of October 31, 2025, the contract was reported at 15,085 yuan/ton, down 250 points or 1.63% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of October 30, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 18,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 31, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,040 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [20][23]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with last week. As of October 30, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 31, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber declined slightly compared with last week [27][30]. Important Market Information - There were multiple significant events including the China - US leaders' meeting, China - US economic and trade consultations, Fed's interest rate cut, statements from the US Treasury Secretary, and economic data releases from various countries. For example, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the US consumer confidence index declined, and China's automobile and heavy - truck sales showed growth [31][33][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of August 31, 2025, among the main natural rubber producing countries, the production in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in India, Vietnam, and China increased. The total production of main producing countries in August 2025 was 987,000 tons, a 64,700 - ton or 6.47% increase from the previous month, with a slightly slower growth rate. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 774,000 tons, a 13.5% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a 11.2% year - on - year increase. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a 13.98% month - on - month increase [43][47][51]. Demand - side Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the开工 rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's automobile monthly production and sales were 3.2758 million and 3.2264 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 17.15% and 14.86% and month - on - month growth of 16.35% and 12.94% respectively. The monthly sales of heavy trucks in China were 105,583 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95% and a month - on - month increase of 15.24%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 103.487 million pieces, a 0.2% year - on - year increase, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 56.3 million pieces, a 10.65% month - on - month decrease [58][62][65]. Inventory - side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 120,900 tons, a decrease of 3,120 tons from last week. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.0389 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 1% from the previous month. The total social inventory of dark rubber was 639,000 tons, a 0.3% decrease; the total social inventory of light rubber was 400,000 tons, a 2% month - on - month decrease. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period, including a 1.29% decrease in bonded area inventory and a 1.18% decrease in general trade inventory [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by weather, with high raw material procurement prices last week, providing strong short - term support. However, as the rainfall in some main producing areas decreases, there is an expectation of increased supply. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 742,000 tons, a 11.7% month - on - month and 20.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative imports increased significantly. - Demand: Last week, the tire enterprises'开工 rates declined slightly. The inventory accumulation trend of all - steel tires reversed, and semi - steel tires had a slight inventory reduction. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires in the first nine months increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly, and the social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber continued to decline slightly [87]. 后市展望 - The short - term trend of the natural rubber futures market is expected to be range - bound. The supply side has short - term support but an expectation of increased supply later. The demand side has fair performance but lacks highlights, and the inventory is decreasing with a slowing decline rate. Key factors to watch include China - US trade relations, anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and zero - tariff policy progress [89][90]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: The main natural rubber futures contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines for now [91][92].
基本面多空博弈，盘面或区间震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:07