Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated November 3, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Lack of driving factors, focus on lower support [2] - Soybean oil: With the rebound of US soybeans, maintaining the strategy of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2] - Soybean meal: US soybeans hit a new high, Dalian soybean meal may follow with a relatively strong oscillation [2] - Soybean: May oscillate strongly [2] - Corn: Will run in an oscillatory manner [2] - Sugar: Mainly in range consolidation [2] - Cotton: The impact of seed cotton prices on cotton futures is weakening [2] - Eggs: Will undergo oscillatory adjustment [2] - Hogs: The central price may further decline [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 8,764 yuan/ton with a - 0.72% change, and night - closing price was 8,654 yuan/ton with a - 1.26% change. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,128 yuan/ton with a - 0.49% change, and night - closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. [4] - Macro and Industry News: Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased compared to the previous month. Indonesia set the November reference price for crude palm oil slightly higher than October, with the export tax remaining unchanged. The USDA will release major agricultural reports in November. [5][6][8] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - closing price was 3021 yuan/ton with a + 1.34% change, and night - closing price was 3024 yuan/ton with a + 0.63% change. DCE soybean 2601's daily - closing price was 4102 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change, and night - closing price was 4100 yuan/ton with a + 0.12% change. [13] - Macro and Industry News: On October 31, CBOT soybean prices rose to a 15 - month high due to China's purchase of US soybeans. [13] - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of + 1 [15] Corn - Fundamental Data: C2511's daily - closing price was 2,105 yuan/ton with a 0.14% change, and night - closing price was 2,119 yuan/ton with a 0.67% change. C2601's daily - closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton with a 0.80% change, and night - closing price was 2,127 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change. [17] - Macro and Industry News: Corn prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in North China mostly rising and those in Guangdong showing a stable - to - downward trend. [18] - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.42 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5483 yuan/ton. [20] - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production in late September increased year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September increased. Forecasts for the 25/26 sugar - making season show a supply shortage globally. [20][22] - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [23] Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2601's daily - closing price was 13,595 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change, and night - closing price was 13555 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change. CY2601's daily - closing price was 19,875 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change, and night - closing price was 19810 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change. [25] - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot market had a cold trading volume, and the cotton - ginning factory's acquisition was nearing completion. The ICE cotton futures rose slightly last Friday. [26] - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [28] Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg 2512's closing price was 3,146 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.29% change, and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,466 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.07% change. [29] - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29] Hogs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 12530 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Hogs 2601 was 11815 yuan/ton. [33] - Market Information: New delivery warehouses were added, and the national feed output in September increased. [35] - Trend Intensity: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [34] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton, and PK601's closing price was 7,812 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change. [36] - Spot Market Focus: Different peanut oil factories had different purchase prices and arrival volumes, and some contracts were suspended. [37][38] - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [41]
棕榈油:油脂驱动匮乏,关注下方支撑豆油:美豆反弹,豆棕做扩维持豆粕:美豆再创新高,连粕或跟随偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:20