Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Benefits Released, Copper Prices Soar and Fluctuate - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Report Source: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile under the influence of macro and fundamental factors. The main contract of Shanghai copper may operate in the range of 85,000 - 89,000 yuan. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see, or conduct short - term trading within the range [7]. - The tight supply of copper concentrate and the expectation of further tightening in the future continue. The long - term demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, but the high copper prices in the short term significantly suppress downstream demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply Side: The shortage of copper mines persists, and refined copper production continues to decline. As of October 31, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 461,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 14.11%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 42.26 US dollars per ton, reaching a historical low. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. Eight smelters were under maintenance in October, affecting the production of electrolytic copper [5]. - Demand Side: High copper prices suppress demand, and the operating rate declines month - on - month. As of October 30, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 60.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.69 percentage points. The high copper prices significantly suppress downstream purchasing sentiment. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [5]. - Inventory: Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate. As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83%. As of October 30, the domestic social copper inventory was 182,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. LME copper inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.21% week - on - week [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - Macroeconomic Data Overview: China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year; the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a consensus; China's official manufacturing PMI in October fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1; the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end balance - sheet reduction in December; the eurozone's Q3 GDP increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations; the US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy [16]. - Industrial News Overview: Teck Resources' Q3 copper production decreased year - on - year; Antofagasta's Q3 copper production decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; Trump revoked Biden's copper smelter emission limit order; ICSG warned that the copper market will face a shortage in 2026; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased year - on - year; Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% year - on - year and lowered its 2025 production forecast [18]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Market and Positioning - Premium and Discount: At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise in copper prices weakened downstream purchasing sentiment, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper widened. During the week, the spot discount of Shanghai copper stabilized at a low level, and then converged as purchasing sentiment increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed during the week. LME copper maintained a small discount, and the price difference between COMEX and LME copper remained stable [25]. - Domestic and Overseas Positions: As of October 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 73.76%, while the open interest decreased by 6.29% week - on - week. As of October 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decrease of 70.40% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply Side: The shortage of copper mines persists, and processing fees have reached a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production continues to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31% [36]. - Downstream Operating Rates: As of October 30, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 60.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.69 percentage points. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [40]. - Inventory: As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83%. As of October 30, the domestic social copper inventory was 182,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. LME copper inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.21% week - on - week [43].
铜周报：宏观利好释放，铜价冲高震荡-20251103
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:20