国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish and volatile [2][4] - Rebar: Subject to sector sentiment, wide - range volatile [2][8] - Hot - rolled coil: Subject to sector sentiment, wide - range volatile [2][9] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly volatile due to sector sentiment and supply - demand factors [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Weakly volatile due to sector sentiment and supply - demand factors [2][13] - Coke: Bullish and volatile [2][17] - Coking coal: Bullish and volatile due to macro and sector theme resonance [2][18] - Logs: Volatile and fluctuating [2][20] 2. Core Views - The report provides daily investment outlooks for various black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. It analyzes their market trends based on fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][9] 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price of iron ore closed at 800 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan (- 0.31%). The open interest decreased by 11,268 lots. Imported and domestic spot prices mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - Macro - Industry News: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [5] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The RB2601 rebar futures closed at 3,106 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.48%), and HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3,308 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 0.72%). Spot prices in some regions declined. Some basis and spread values changed [9] - Macro - Industry News: On October 30, steel output increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. Five departments supported commercial real estate REIT issuance. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the steel industry. In September 2025, China's steel exports increased in volume and decreased in price, while imports increased in volume and decreased slightly in price [10][11] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Ferrosilicon 2601 futures closed at 5,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and silicomanganese 2601 futures closed at 5,772 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads changed [13] - Macro - Industry News: On October 31, 2025, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices had different changes in different regions. In October, the production of silicomanganese in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia had some adjustments. The average start - up rate of ferrosilicon in October was 50.83%, with a slight decrease from September. Manganese ore inventory decreased [13][15] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: JM2601 coking coal futures closed at 1,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.2%), and J2601 coke futures closed at 1,777 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan (- 0.5%). Spot prices and various spreads changed [18] - Macro - Industry News: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [19] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) for both coke and coking coal [19] Logs - Fundamental Data: For different log contracts, prices, trading volumes, and open interests had different changes. Spot prices of various log types in different regions were mostly stable or had small declines [21] - Macro - Industry News: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [23] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [23]