国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251103

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Monitor risks in US banks [2] - Silver: Oscillate and rebound [2] - Copper: Lack clear drivers, prices to oscillate [2] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Lead: Declining overseas inventories support prices [2] - Tin: Focus on macro impacts [2] - Aluminum: Center of gravity to shift upwards [2] - Alumina: Anchor on supply reduction [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Run strongly [2] - Nickel: Smelting end inventory accumulation suppresses, while mine end uncertainties support [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices to oscillate in a narrow range at low levels [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: Gold and silver prices showed mixed trends. For example, Comex gold 2512 fell 0.62% to 4013.40, while Shanghai silver 2512 rose 1.66% to 11441. Trading volumes also varied, with Comex silver 2512 seeing a significant increase of 57,975 in trading volume [4]. - Inventory and ETF Holdings: Gold and silver ETF holdings and inventories changed. SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 1 to 1,039.20, and Comex gold inventories (in ounces) decreased by 216,666 to 38,243,477 [4]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: Included news such as China's Ministry of Commerce's export exemptions for Nexperia and Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts [4][7]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: Shanghai copper's main contract fell 1.08% to 87,010, and London copper 3M electronic trading fell 0.35% to 10,892. Trading volumes and positions also changed [10]. - Inventory and Spreads: Shanghai copper inventories increased by 2,273 to 39,710, and London copper inventories decreased by 325 to 134,625. Spreads such as LME copper spreads and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: Included news like the reversal of a copper smelting pollution - control regulation by US President Trump and production data from Anglo American and Glencore [10][12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: Shanghai zinc's main contract was at 22355, and London zinc 3M electronic trading rose 0.18% to 3050. Trading volumes and positions decreased [13]. - Spreads and Inventories: Shanghai 0 zinc spreads and LME CASH - 3M spreads changed, and both Shanghai and London zinc inventories increased [13]. - News: Included statements from US Treasury Secretary Bezant on interest rate cuts and Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts [14]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: Shanghai lead's main contract rose 0.23% to 17390, and London lead 3M electronic trading rose 0.15% to 2025. Trading volumes increased, and positions changed [16]. - Spreads and Inventories: Shanghai 1 lead spreads and LME CASH - 3M spreads changed, and London lead inventories decreased by 3875 to 220300 [16]. - News: Included statements from Pan Gongsheng on financial policies and China's October PMI data [16]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: Shanghai tin's main contract rose 0.11% to 283,910, and London tin 3M electronic trading rose 1.29% to 36,180. Trading volumes and positions changed [18]. - Inventory and Spreads: Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 58 to 5,674, and London tin inventories increased by 85 to 2,875. Spreads such as SMM 1 tin spreads changed [18]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: Similar to gold and silver, included news on trade policies, Fed interest rate cut views, etc. [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 21300, and LME aluminum 3M closed at 2888. Trading volumes and positions of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all changed [21]. - Inventory and Spreads: LME aluminum inventories increased, and spreads such as LME aluminum cash - 3M spreads and near - month vs. consecutive - month spreads changed [21]. - Comprehensive News: Included news on China's initiative at the APEC meeting and the US government shutdown [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: Shanghai nickel's main contract was at 120,590, and stainless steel's main contract was at 12,655. Trading volumes and positions changed [24]. - Industry News: Included news on Indonesia's takeover of a nickel mine and China's suspension of a non - official subsidy for Russian imports [24][25].