研究所晨会观点精萃：国内PMI数据不及预期，股指连续回调-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's attitude, domestic PMI data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends, with short - term volatility and varying degrees of risk and opportunity [2][3] - For commodities, different sectors like black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, which are influenced by both macro and micro factors [4][8][12][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, the dollar index is strengthening due to Powell's hawkish attitude, and global risk appetite is cooling. Domestically, the October PMI is 49.0%, down 0.8% from last month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policy stimulus expectations are increasing. Index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and government bonds may rebound slightly. For commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may fluctuate, while precious metals may correct at high levels [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The weakening PMI data dampened market sentiment, but policy stimulus expectations may boost risk appetite. Short - term caution and wait - and - see are recommended [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Fed's hawkish attitude and strong dollar index led to an overall shock adjustment of spot gold. In the short term, precious metals may fluctuate, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. Real demand is improving marginally, and speculative demand has also increased. However, steel mill profits are being compressed, and environmental restrictions may reduce supply. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][5] - Iron Ore: The spot price fell slightly last Friday, while the futures price strengthened. Macro expectations and reduced arrivals led to a recent rebound. But steel mill profits are low, and iron ore supply pressure is large. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot price was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the price of silicon iron raw materials was stable. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] - Soda Ash: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply is increasing, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand is stable. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view is recommended [7] - Glass: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by policies, it may be slightly stronger in the short term, and the demand during the year - end completion peak needs attention [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The macro - environment has weakened. The Fed's attitude and China's PMI data are not optimistic. US copper inventories are high, and domestic de - stocking is not as expected. However, the suspension of an Indonesian copper mine may support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8] - Aluminum: The price reached a one - year high last Friday and then declined. The Fed's attitude and market sentiment affected the price. The fundamentals changed little, and overseas and domestic de - stocking was not as expected [8] - Tin: The smelting start - up rate is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the high price suppresses consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short to medium term [9] - Lithium Carbonate: The production decreased slightly, and the price of raw materials increased. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Due to rumors and hedging pressure, light - position wait - and - see is recommended [10] - Industrial Silicon: The production reached a new high. Supply pressure comes from Xinjiang, and demand is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips is recommended [10][11] - Polysilicon: The inventory decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The policy expectation and weak reality are in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [11] Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is concerned about the lack of significant transfer of Asia - Pacific procurement after Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ is increasing production, but geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The long - term price is expected to be bearish [12] - Asphalt: The cost support is weakening, and the price is falling. The inventory is being reduced, but the demand is approaching the off - season. The supply pressure is temporarily reduced, but the future trend depends on the rebound of crude oil [12] - PX: The crude oil price is fluctuating weakly. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and the price is mainly driven by crude oil costs [13] - PTA: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, and the basis has improved. But the supply is still high, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in November [13] - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory has decreased, but the arrival volume is high. The inventory accumulation pressure is large in November, and the price is testing the previous low [13] - Short Fiber: It fluctuates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the pressure is large in the later period. Terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating [14][15] - Methanol: The market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is decreasing slightly, while the inland inventory is increasing. The price may decline in the short term but is expected to enter a consolidation phase later [15] - PP: The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is high. However, the demand is improving marginally, and the crude oil price provides some cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15] - LLDPE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken after the peak in early November. The crude oil price provides limited support, and the price is expected to be under pressure [16] - Urea: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The export is expected to remain at a low level [16] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The Sino - US trade window may open, and China's purchase plan may lead to an increase in export expectations. If the yield is further reduced, the cost - repair logic will be strengthened, and the price may continue to rise [17] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations may increase the cost of imported soybeans but reduce the risk of supply shortage. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [17] - Palm Oil: It has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there was over - production in October, the price may be supported by the increase in international oil and crude oil prices, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains [18][19] - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Affected by the decline of palm and rapeseed oil, the price may continue to weaken. It is in the consumption season, and the high inventory of rapeseed oil is being reduced [19] - Corn: The pressure of wet grain sales is decreasing, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is weak, but the bottom - range support may be effective [19] - Pigs: The overall slaughter volume is expected to increase in November, and the profit is in a loss state. The pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice in December [19]