纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a consolidation phase. The supply is increasing while downstream procurement is weak, with rising inventory pressure on enterprises. The cost increase and corporate losses form a bottom - support, but high supply and weak demand restrict price increases. It is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. For glass futures, the market is also in an oscillating trend. High supply and continuous inventory accumulation are suppressing prices, and the peak - season demand has not materialized. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. Last week, the domestic soda ash market had a loose supply - demand situation, with prices oscillating weakly. Supply increased while downstream procurement was weak, and enterprise inventory pressure rose. Cost increases and corporate losses provided bottom - support, but high supply and weak demand restricted price increases. It is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. The futures price fluctuated at a low level, and the short - term trend was more affected by macro and sector sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic soda ash market had a narrow - range oscillation last week, with different regional performances. Supply remained high, demand was weak, enterprise inventory accumulated, and downstream procurement was cautious. The short - term supply - demand pattern was expected to remain loose, prices were expected to be stable with a weak trend, and the trading center might move down. The soda ash futures oscillated weakly, and the expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The domestic soda ash market had a loose supply - demand situation last week, with prices oscillating weakly. Supply increased while downstream procurement was weak, and it was expected to continue consolidating in the short term. The futures price fluctuated at a low level, and the short - term trend was more affected by macro and sector sentiment. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light - weight and heavy - weight inventory, basis (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China (weekly). The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 4.6, the main force's tendency is not obvious; the capital energy is - 50.8, indicating a large outflow of funds; and the multi - empty divergence is 79.6, suggesting a certain risk of market reversal [11][15][17][20]. Glass Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass market is in an oscillating trend. Last week, the floating - glass futures price oscillated weakly. High supply and continuous inventory accumulation suppressed prices, causing them to rise and then fall. The national enterprise total inventory reached 66.613 million heavy boxes, a three - month high. The number of deep - processing order days dropped to 10.4 days, a year - on - year decline of over 20%. The peak - season demand did not materialize. The production - end operating rate remained above 76%, and there was an expectation of new production lines being ignited in the fourth quarter. The short - term price was difficult to rise trend - wise due to inventory suppression, and the far - month contracts had limited decline due to cost support. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [28]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic floating - glass spot prices generally declined last week. The market supply - demand was loose, enterprise inventory accumulated, downstream procurement was cautious, and prices were under pressure. It was expected to remain weak in the short term. The glass futures fell unilaterally and then stabilized. Weak demand and inventory accumulation continuously suppressed the market, and cost support was limited with insufficient rebound momentum [31]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The floating - glass futures oscillated weakly last week. The enterprise total inventory reached a three - month high, and the deep - processing orders decreased by over 20% year - on - year. The peak - season demand was lower than expected. The current operating rate remained high, and supply pressure persisted. The short - term price may continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory and restocking trends [32]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly floating - glass production, operating rate, production cost and production profit of the floating process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 65.1, the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 1.5, indicating that the funds are basically stable; and the multi - empty divergence is 99.9, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [34][38][41][46].