豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20251103

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Bean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: November 3 - November 7, 2025 [1] Group 2: Bean Meal Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The domestic oil mill's high crushing volume, slow de - stocking of bean meal, and weak demand from the feed industry due to breeding losses are offset by the bottom - driving force of rising import costs caused by Sino - US negotiation sentiment and South American weather uncertainties [6]. - Trend Logic: In the 43rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3674 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is weak, but import costs are rising [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade, South American weather, and breeding demand [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was in an upward channel, with funds being relatively bullish. The M2601 contract was expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2880 - 3050 [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, with funds being strongly bullish. The M2601 contract may continue the slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3100 [10]. 3. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds for bean meal are strongly bullish, with a multi - empty flow of 98.0. The fund energy is basically stable, and there is a high risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 90.4 [14]. 4. Related Data - The report covers data such as bean meal's weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Advisory Department [19][20][22] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. High domestic soybean arrivals, high operating rates of oil mills, high production, and inventory are suppressing prices, while the dull demand and weak competing oils are countered by the positive impact of improved Sino - US trade relations and import cost support [27]. - Trend Logic: In the 43rd week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 44,980 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 125,030 tons [27]. - Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's B50 policy [27] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, with funds being relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue the range - bound oscillation pattern in the short - term [30]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways phase, with funds being relatively bullish. The Y2601 contract may continue the range - bound oscillation pattern in the short - term [30]. 3. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds for soybean oil are relatively bullish, with a multi - empty flow of 65.5. The main funds are flowing in slightly with a fund energy of 44.9, and there is a certain risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 70.9 [35]. 4. Related Data - The report includes data on soybean oil's weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, as well as soybean's weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Advisory Department [41][47][50]