能繁母猪存栏微降，关注PMI景气趋势：——金融工程行业景气月报20251103-20251103

• The report tracks industry prosperity signals for sectors such as coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining based on recent industry operating indicators[9] - Coal Industry Model: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price factors and production capacity factors. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the following month[10][14] - Livestock Farming Factor: The "outbound coefficient method" is used to calculate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months in advance. The formula is: $ \text{Outbound Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Pig Outbound}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory lag6m}} $ $ \text{6-month Potential Production Capacity} = \text{t-month Breeding Sow Inventory} \times (\text{t+6-month Last Year Outbound Coefficient}) $ $ \text{6-month Potential Pig Demand} = \text{t+6-month Last Year Single Quarter Pig Outbound} $ This method effectively identifies pig price upward cycles[15][16] - Steel Industry Model: Monthly profit growth and per-ton profit are predicted using a model that incorporates comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] - Structural Materials and Construction Engineering Model: Profit changes in the glass and cement manufacturing industries are tracked using price and cost indicators. Configuration signals are designed based on profitability changes. Manufacturing prosperity and real estate sales data are analyzed to assess the likelihood of infrastructure investment expectations[25] - Fuel Refining and Oil Services Model: Industry profit growth and cracking spreads are calculated using changes in fuel oil prices and crude oil prices. Configuration signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling changes[27] Backtesting Results - Coal Industry: Profit growth is predicted to continue declining in November 2025 due to coal prices being lower than the previous year[14] - Livestock Farming Factor: The breeding sow inventory at the end of September 2025 was 40.35 million heads, slightly down month-on-month. The potential pig supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19.347 million heads, with demand forecasted at 19.476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight supply-demand balance[17] - Steel Industry: Profit growth for October 2025 is predicted to be negative. The rolling 12-month PMI average decreased month-on-month, maintaining a neutral configuration view for the steel industry[23] - Structural Materials and Construction Engineering: Flat glass profitability continued to grow year-on-year in October 2025, maintaining a positive signal for the glass industry. Cement industry profits turned negative year-on-year in October 2025, with no positive signals from new housing starts, maintaining a neutral view. Manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data suggest potential infrastructure investment expectations, leading to a positive signal for the construction decoration industry[26] - Fuel Refining and Oil Services: Fuel refining industry profits are predicted to grow slightly year-on-year in October 2025. Oil prices were lower than the previous year, maintaining a neutral view for the fuel refining and oil services industries[34][35]